3am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Barbers
1.9ft @ 14s from 194° (SSW)
Lanai
2.2ft @ 15s from 164° (SSE)
Let's first see what Pat Caldwell had to say about the energy in the water these days.
Surf coming in 7/24 from 140-170 degrees was created S to SE of the Tuamotu Islands 7/15-17 in the subtropics. This event is also modelled to trend down on Thursday.
The subtropical Tuamotu system tracked SSE 7/18-19 as it gained severe-gale to storm-force winds. The system moved steadily away from Hawaii, limiting fetch duration. Without the shadowing by the Tuamotu Islands, this type source would generate above average surf locally. However, the shadowing greatly lowers the surf potential and introduces larger error bars on the surf estimate.
Forerunners from this source are due locally on Thursday centered from 155 degrees. It should be filled in by Friday and peak near the average Friday night. The event should slowly trend down into Sunday. Background level surf is predicted for Monday, 7/29.
Below is the maps of July 19, 20 and 21 that show the "Tuamotu" fetch and a Tasman Sea one. IF the directions at Barbers and Lanai are correct, the first one feels the SSW energy, the second the SSE one, but obviously they are both in the water in both locations.
The not so usual SSE direction inspired me to draw a few lines on Google Earth. As you can see, Lahaina might get a bit of shadowing from Kahoolawe from this direction, while a spot like Thousand Peaks seems to be more open to it. That is true, but let's not forget that well before hitting the small uninhabited island, the swell will have to wrap around the southern tip of the Big Island, which sits at 160 degrees from us (but only at 150 for Lanai), as reported in the Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines post. Hard to predict the size, that's when the Lahaina webcam plays a huge role. Check it out before going, but there should be waves on that side today. Do check the size at Thousand Peaks if you do go, but the wind maps call for strong offshores over there.
PS Looks pretty small in the semi-dark, but there's sets. You got to look at least 5 minutes, the longer you look, the better you know.
North shore
Mokapu
3.6ft @ 8s from 76° (ENE)
Hilo
5.8ft @ 8s from 87° (E)
Mokapu down a bit, Hilo pretty steady, there should be small waves at Hookipa also today with bigger sizes on the eastern exposures.
Wind map at noon.
Only windswell in the North Pacific.
South Pacific has a lovely fetch in a great straight south position.
Morning sky
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