Thursday 7 4 19 morning call

Day four of this run of south swells might have not been as epic as Sunday and Monday, but it sure had a lot less people in the lineups. I shot a bunch of clips for a new Kai Penny clip, but I'll need some time to stitch them together. In the meantime, here's some shots of yesterday from the Makena side. This one is by James Flynn.


This one by my friend Robert.


I took this one at Olowalu instead.


2am significant buoy readings
Barbers
2.9ft @ 15s from 192° (SSW)

Lanai
3.2ft @ 15s from 192° (SSW)

Southerly energy still at the buoys. Here's Pat Caldwell description of what happened that made this swell so long lasting.
The low pressures SE of New Zealand 6/25 and 6/26 aimed highest at the Americas. The 6/25 source filled in locally Tuesday 7/2 and is holding about the same 7/3. The 6/26 source is filling in today. Since most of the energy from both sources is in the 14-17s band, it is hard to see any change in size from these overlapping sources.
The nearshore PacIOOS/CDIP buoys show the Lanai buoy higher than the Barbers buoy 7/2-3, reflecting the higher swell towards the east along the Hawaiian island chain. The source 6/26 should peak locally Wednesday night and slowly drop on Thursday from 180-200 degrees. This event should fall to near the summer average on Friday morning as a new long-period event builds.

Below is the collage of the maps of June 25 to 30, that might help follow what he also added for the remaining days of this wonderful week.
The next low pressure in the series dropped to 936 mb to the SE of New Zealand 6/29 while a 1032 mb high pressure shifted east from the central Tasman Sea. This near 100 mb pressure difference made for a wide, long fetch of storm-force winds. Seas grew within 30-40 feet. The aim was greatest at the Americas.
The PacIOOS/CDIP Samoa buoy registered the 16-21s energy late Tuesday into Wednesday 7/2-2. This is much less energy than the event that passed under the Samoa buoy 6/26-28 and produced the large local surf 6/30-7/1. This is because the previous source had an extended time period SE of New Zealand of about 36 hours, while this one was about half that duration. The Wave Watch III model estimated a 3'@17s for the Samoa location for 7/2-3 while 10'@19s for Tahiti, reflecting the aim at the Americas. Hawaii will be at the western edge of the swath of swell. This places greater error bars on the local surf estimate. Check back for fine-tuning of the surf forecasts 7/5-7 as the swell trains roll under the NOAA southern buoys 51002 and 51004.
This event should have the near 24-hour onset stage with 20-22s energy late Thursday to late Friday. Inconsistent, above average sets from 180-200 degrees are possible Friday PM 7/5. The event should be filled in by Saturday morning, peak mid Saturday, then slowly drop Sunday down to near average levels by Monday from the same direction.



North shore
Mokapu
2.1ft @ 8s from 74° (ENE)

Hookipa and the whole north shore will be flat.

This is the wind map at 9am. In the red circle, notice the direction of the wind offshore Maui. Light ESE is the best wind for surfing, pretty much on any side, specially the west side. As a consequence we'll have glassy conditions (yellow circle) until the usual onshore breeze will pick up mid morning.


Wind map at noon.


North Pacific only shows Barbara and its easterly miniature but intense fetch approaching.


Another strong fetch in the South Pacific, but not directly aimed. I circled it in yellow, as I'm not sure where it's pointing compared to our great circle rays. Missing the old maps with the isobars greatly.


Morning sky.