4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai
1.5ft @ 11s from 181° (S)
Tiny bit of southerly energy at Lanai, please check the Lahaina webcam if interested, it might easily be flat to start with, until a possible N wrap will fill in in the second part of the day.
North shore
NW101
4.5ft @ 11s from 6° (N)
N
8ft @ 13s from 357° (N)
6.3ft @ 10s from 5° (N)
Waimea
Waimea
5.2ft @ 8s from 10° (N)
Below is the maps of Dec 3, 4 and 5 that will help follow. As you can see, the angular spreading energy is going to be big part of this swell, and that's always tricky to forecast in size.
2.6ft @ 14s from 351° (N)
2.1ft @ 11s from 12° (NNE)
Pauwela
Pauwela
4.1ft @ 8s from 13° (NNE)
2.5ft @ 11s from 13° (NNE)
2.1ft @ 15s from 349° (NNW)
New northerly swell on the rise all day, let's see how Pat Cladwell describes the evolution of the fetch:
A low pressure pattern had a second wind of energy this week and
is expected to produce overlapping events from N and NNE,
respectively 12/6-9.
The first phase had the low intensifying near the Aleutians on the
Date Line 12/2 with a SE track. Gales over the 355-010 degree band
aimed highest just east of Hawaii 12/2 into early 12/4 with the
head of the fetch about 1200 nm away.
Surf is expected to build above the north shore seasonal average
on Friday with a peak late in the day. The event should drop below
average on Saturday as the next event arrives.
The second event occurred as the aforementioned low became
occluded near 43N, 145W to the NNE of Hawaii early 12/4. The low
center slowly shifted ESE into 12/5. ASCAT satellite swaths showed
severe gale to storm force winds mostly north to south on the W to
NW side of the low over a wide area aimed highest east of Hawaii
though close enough for angular spreading. A separate fetch of
gales aimed directly at Hawaii on the N to NE side of the low.
Models show the low slowly easing in ocean surface winds toward
marginal gales into Friday, then fading out Saturday.
Long-period forerunners are due locally early Saturday from
000-030 degrees. It should return surf above average mid day, peak
overnight Saturday night, then slowly drop Sunday. Heights should
fall to small levels on Monday from the same direction.
is expected to produce overlapping events from N and NNE,
respectively 12/6-9.
The first phase had the low intensifying near the Aleutians on the
Date Line 12/2 with a SE track. Gales over the 355-010 degree band
aimed highest just east of Hawaii 12/2 into early 12/4 with the
head of the fetch about 1200 nm away.
Surf is expected to build above the north shore seasonal average
on Friday with a peak late in the day. The event should drop below
average on Saturday as the next event arrives.
The second event occurred as the aforementioned low became
occluded near 43N, 145W to the NNE of Hawaii early 12/4. The low
center slowly shifted ESE into 12/5. ASCAT satellite swaths showed
severe gale to storm force winds mostly north to south on the W to
NW side of the low over a wide area aimed highest east of Hawaii
though close enough for angular spreading. A separate fetch of
gales aimed directly at Hawaii on the N to NE side of the low.
Models show the low slowly easing in ocean surface winds toward
marginal gales into Friday, then fading out Saturday.
Long-period forerunners are due locally early Saturday from
000-030 degrees. It should return surf above average mid day, peak
overnight Saturday night, then slowly drop Sunday. Heights should
fall to small levels on Monday from the same direction.
Because of the position of the fetch and the orientation of the winds, it's no surprise that the N buoy is sensing more energy than the NW ones. Below are the graphs of N (swell line in the red circle) and Pauwela, together with the Surfline offshore swell forecast. It seems that in this case the timing of the forecast is pretty accurate, so I drew a red dotted line on Pauwela according to that: on the rise all day, probably peaking during the night.
The swell will start around 350 and then clock around more to the east, as explained by uncle Pat. Great unblocked direction for Honolua and the whole west side, the north shore will top the heights as usual, with double overhead plus at sunset. Sunrise will be smaller than that, stay tuned for a POSSIBLE Hookipa beach report.
Wind map at noon
Kahului Tides
High Tide High Tide Low Tide Low Tide Sunrise Sunset
North Pacific has a vast NW fetch and a compact NE one.
Decent Tasman Sea fetch down under, that's a fun off season Fiji swell.
Morning sky.
Quite a bit of rain around us, as shown in the 5.45am rain radar.
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