Monday, January 31, 2022

Monday 1 31 22 morning call

Hookipa yesterday. Photo by Jimmie Hepp from this album.

3am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers is mostly reading NW wrap these days and can't be used to detect small southerly energy. Check the Lahaina and Kihei webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
5ft @ 14s from 284° (WNW)

Hanalei

4.6ft @ 15s from 317° (NW)

Waimea

2.7ft @ 15s from 310° (WNW)
2ft @ 7s from 38° (NE)
1.2ft @ 13s from 314° (NW)
1.1ft @ 11s from 336° (NNW)

The steady supply of WNW energy continues at the buoys with the previous pulse almost fading out completely, while a new moderate one rises. The latter shows a direction of 284 at the NW101 buoy (309 at the NW001), so it's highly likely that we won't get the whole bulk of it and consequently Hookipa might be pretty small at sunrise only to become slightly bigger during the day. No Pauwela buoy and no buoy graphs on the Surfline page sure don't help the guessing game in these occasions.

Below is the fetch map of Jan 29, which show the fetch from which this new WNW might be coming from. As you can see from the great circle rays map on the right, on this day the fetch was:
- not particularly intense
- between 290 and 300 degrees
- about 2.5 days of travel distance.

The day after it moved north a bit (hence in a less sheltered position) and intensified considerably, so the forecasts predict a decent size pulse for tomorrow afternoon (light blue dotted line on the Pacioos forecast below).


Back to this morning, my home guess for Hookipa is around waist to shoulder high and clean.

Forecast of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.


Wind map at noon
. The other ones can be found here.


Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: possibly over the ice sheet) from Windy.

North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):


South Pacific
(about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):


Morning sky.


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