11 13 15 morning call

Here's a nice article describing the chances of all the title contenders on the WSL website with plenty photos/videos showing their season highlights. I recommend to watch the incredible double 20 that Owen Wright got in Fiji, one of which in the final.

The wind map today shows some signs of chance. To illustrate it, I'm gonna use Pat Caldwell's words. I strongly recommend to read the whole thing (link n.9).

The more northward zonal jet over the Pacific has placed NW to N shores on pause. Below average conditions are predicted to continue into early next week. A pattern change is modelled to unfold over the weekend and trend surf up mid week.

Models show a low pressure intensifying 11/13-14 as it tracks east along 40°N from the southern Kuril Islands. A fetch over the 295-310 degree band is estimated to reach the dateline about 1200 nm away by Sunday. This would be a 2-day travel time for the 17-19 second forerunners, allowing a slow increase locally mid Tuesday.
Mid Thursday on eastern shores has rough, well above trade windswell average conditions. Similar surf is likely through the weekend.

On the map I indicated where the jet stream has been sitting during the last few days, keeping the ground swell generating lows too north to do much for us.
I also indicated the low that is forming and that will move eastward. That one is close enough to generate the NW swell forecasted to arrive Tuesday.

8f 14s from 314 is the latest Surfline prediction for the peak of the swell in Maui on Wednesday 8pm.
There might be some waves late Tuesday too, maybe a bit too west to really reach Maui.

Windswell fetch still pretty strong, while also the south fetch is looking stronger this morning. Resulting swell in a week will be above the season average, considering we are deep into November and the south shore could easily be flat (but it definitely isn't and won't be).



Buoys 7am
NW
8.7ft @ 10s from 90° (E)

4.8ft @ 6s from 82° (E)

Pauwela
7.8ft @ 10s from 68° (ENE)

4.5ft @ 7s from 52° (ENE)

Barbers
3.1ft @ 7s from 137° (SE)

2.2ft @ 12s from 258° (WSW)

1.5ft @ 10s from 218° (SW)

 

No sign of the small NW swell at the NW buoy, that means it's really small and in fact it wasn't enough to start the Haleiwa contest, which will probably start Tuesday or Wednesday.

MC2km map at noon shows strong trades again.


If you wonna surf today, you have two options.
Check the lahaina webcam to see if you're happy with the small (but clean) size of the waves over there. If you want something bigger (but rougher), look for easterly exposures. Have fun.