Monday, November 02, 2015

11 2 15 morning call

Long day at the Hookipa beach park for me yesterday since I was on jury duty.
Of course I managed to surf at sunrise and sunset, so it was another day of my life without a single complain.
Complaining in Maui should be illegal. That's the first law I'm gonna do if I become Mayor: you complain, you go to jail. Because it means you have completely lost any sense of perspective in life.

The youth category hit the water and they got all the way to the final that was cancelled because of light wind. Jake Schettewi was the kid that impressed me the most, and below is a photo by AWT of him.
He had one ride with two sharp top turns and a big aerial and my pen immediately, instinctively wrote down the number 10. Considering the conditions and category, for me it was one of clearest 10s I've ever scored/seen. Head judge Duncan agreed.
Unfortunately there wasn't enough wind at the end of the day to run the final, which will happen sometimes later this week.

The women managed to do the whole single elimination, so we have a temporary champion there too. As usual in the absence of her twin sister, it's Iballa Moreno and I apologize with her if I chose this crazy wipeout photo by Jimmie Hepp, but it's too good to pass. The ladies were charging too.

3.9ft @ 9s from 5° (N)
2.6ft @ 6s from 74° (ENE)
2.6ft @ 14s from 157° (SSE)

2.8ft @ 12s from 320° (NW)
2.6ft @ 8s from 16° (NNE)
4.9ft @ 7s from 82° (E)           
3.2ft @ 11s from 329° (NW)
2ft @ 13s from 233° (WSW)
1.9ft @ 9s from 289° (WNW)
1.6ft @ 15s from 193° (SSW)
1.5ft @ 11s from 294° (WNW)

As you can see, the NW swell is now down to 3f 11s in Maui and by looking at the NW buoy, the period will go down even more today. We can't really complain since we had tons of NW energy since last Tuesday (plus we don't want to go to jail!).
That's still a very fun size at Hookipa (expect a report soon), specially with the sideoff ESE wind which should still be blowing this morning.

Not much coming up for the first part of this week though, as the wind map below shows. No fetches in the north pacific, but a nice one in the usual corner SE of New Zealand. 7/8 days for those waves to get here.

I don't like anymore to look at long term forecasts for many reasons. Here's some:
- they're not reliable
- they won't change a thing in my life (I have a fixed light work schedule and I can always surf before and after my shifts)
- they create expectations which are a wonderful source of disappointment.
Focusing on the daily conditions is also a philosophical choice for living more in the present.

But I'll do an exception just because so many people at the contest want to know what's going on for the rest of it. The contest waiting period in fact lasts till Nov 10 and today they announced a lay day.
Let's have a look at the waves first.
The high pressure I highlighted with an H in the above map will solidify and start creating an easterly windswell which will be noticeable in a day or two. Tomorrow afternoon there should also be a small NNW pulse that Surfline is calling at 2f 14s. That's good for all the other AWT categories, but I believe the Pro's will have to wait until the weekend to finish the double elimination when a bigger 6f 15s NW swell will hit.
The windity map below is for Wednesday and it shows the fetch that will generate that swell.
I added windity as link n.2 in my meteo links list, but I wouldn't recommend to have a full 14 days run now, since it might be a bit depressing... absolutely nothing other than wind and windswell after this weekend swell. But, as I said, don't look too far forward in forecasts (and life): it's completely pointless (unless you have to book a surf trip).

The good news for the contest is that there should be good wind for the rest of it. A little stronger and less offshore, as the Windguru 10 days, GFS based table shows.
But together with the more usual ENE trades direction there might be rain squalls back in the mix, so there's no guaranteed of good wind. The offshore ESE wind did not bring a single drop of rain at Hookipa and that was awfully nice, I have to say.

BTW, Winguru doesn't do any forecast at all. Most forecast website don't do any forecasts at all. They just put into a graphic form the output of "public" mathematical models that try to predict what's going to happen in the atmosphere.
What Pat Caldwell does is a forecast. Or at least a discussion about the models outputs mixed with his knowledge and observations. I try to do the same here on this page for Maui and I will always consider him my Maestro.

I also ran into the daily recap videos on the PWA youtube page. Here's the first day with those massive unruly waves.

Last but not least, I'd like to thank all the readers. The numbers are going up, almost 17k page views in the last month. Please spread the word in the lineup if you like this blog and would like to support it.
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