Saturday, November 28, 2015

11 28 15 morning call

New swell is hitting Oahu and the Sunset contest is on.

Buoys 7am

8.9ft @ 17s from 312° (NW)
4.5ft @ 8s from 80° (E)
3.4ft @ 10s from 45° (NE)

4.7ft @ 9s from 356° (N)
4.2ft @ 11s from 349° (NNW)
2.4ft @ 20s from 308° (WNW)
4.9ft @ 10s from 348° (NNW)           
4.7ft @ 8s from 35° (NE)
4.2ft @ 12s from 340° (NNW)
3ft @ 14s from 26° (NNE)

Below the graphs of the NW and the Pauwela buoys. I put two red lines to show when the new long period NW swell was at 2f and at 8f at the first one.
Instead, it somehow didn't make the 7am reading at the second one, but if you look at the graph, you'll already see a couple of 22s readings. So that's a glitch and it will most likely back in the readings in the 8am ones.
As for the Maui table and the GP rule of thumb, a long period swell takes around 12h from the NW buoy to the Maui one and that seems to be true for the 2f reading. If that is confirmed, whatever energy will make it Maui out of those 8f 17s, will be in Maui around sunset.
Direction of those 8f is from 312 and that should make Hookipa pretty big and rising all day, but it will be shadowed by Molokai for Honolua bay. In fact, the contest over there is on hold at the moment.

How much of that energy will be able to wrap around Molokai and hit the Bay, I have no idea, because I haven't observed the bay for the last 15 years, like instead I did for the north shore of Maui.
My guess is that the shadowing will be significant because the shadow line sits at around 20 degrees more north. But it's also true that the period is real long and that will help the refraction.
Having updates from a live contest (next call at 9am) will actually be a rare opportunity to match what the bay looks like versus the buoy readings, which I won't miss out on.

Also, let's not forget the old NNW swell, still in the water.

Wind map today shows the new NW fetch that will make Wednesday's swell. Looks pretty strong.
A small tiny fetch down south.

MC2km map at noon shows the wind that it shows.

PS. Sorry for the late post. Yesterday I went to see the John John movie and then, after an absence of about 8 years, I stepped into Charley's. The music was good, but it might take me another 8 years to go again.
I did not like the movie at all, btw. Too repetitive, no dialogue, 6,000 aerials. The Pipeline section was good, thanks to the sheer beauty of the waves and the amazing skills of the surfers. A late drop there pleases me more than any off the lip manouver.

Pps. Thanks to Ross Williams for calling the Hawaiian scale for measuring the waves "funky and not science based".

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