Friday, November 20, 2015

11 20 15 morning call

Let's open with this nice shot of Dioni Guadagnino by OneMore Foto. Not sure when it was taken.

Buoys 5am
8.4ft @ 10s from 86° (E)

4.4ft @ 12s from 342° (NNW) (the Haleiwa contest will still be on)          
2.7ft @ 8s from 35° (NE)
2.3ft @ 9s from 11° (NNE)

5.3ft @ 10s from 62° (ENE)
5.2ft @ 12s from 338° (NNW)
3.8ft @ 7s from 72° (ENE)

No more NW energy at the NW buoy and that is understandable if you remember how the fetch moved in the past three days. If you don't, you scroll down to the past three days' posts, look at the wind maps where I circle the fetches and then you'll know.

The two reasons why I post the wind map with the fetches are:
1) to give you guys an idea of what's coming ahead. How many days ahead depends on the position of the fetch... it can be 8 days like the tasman sea fetch in today's map at the end of this post, it can be 3-4 days like most fetches up in the "NW corner"
2) for future references. I don't think there's many other places online where you can so easily go back a few days and see what was going on with the winds at the surface level.

Still some NNW energy at the Waimea and Pauwela buoy though. I heard Hookipa was really clean and fun yesterday and today should see similar conditions.
The MC2km noon map I posted yesterday was quite wrong, since it was calling for much more wind that there actually was. That's because there was no sun. Usually the model that website uses is pretty good at taking into account local weather features like the cloud cover, but this time it failed.
The message here is: that is the best wind forecasting tool (for the next 24h when updated), but also that one can be wrong.

This morning I'm posting early again and it's not updated yet, but I wouldn't hope for much wind at all. The direction is ESE and check how bad the rain is at 5.45am...
Probably really good for surfing. Oh well, I didn't miss much so far, but today I would love to be able to surf. Surfing in the rain is one of my favorite. Specially when it's raining since the very first light, there's usually a lot less people out.

Forecasted south swell is hitting the Barbers buoy (third reading below), check the webcam before going if you can.

2.2ft @ 13s from 310° (WNW)           
1.9ft @ 6s from 142° (SE)
1.8ft @ 15s from 194° (SSW)
1.8ft @ 7s from 164° (SSE)
Wind map shows a couple of weak fetches in the northern pacific. Both only have winds up to 25 knots, so we won't feel anything out of that NW one, but we'll keep having elevated windswell out of the trade winds one, just because it's pretty much attached to the Hawaiian islands (marked with an H).
The one down SW instead has winds up to 45 knots and is going to provide Fiji (marked with an F) with a long lasting long period swell. Some of that energy might even get here, but not much.

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