Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Wednesday 9 30 20 morning call

Extremely high quality waves all morning yesterday in Lahaina. Don't have shots of the day, so here's my review of a 12.5" flat tail from Gofoil.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.9ft @ 14s from 181° (S)

Lanai
2.3ft @ 14s from 183° (S)

This swell has performed much better that I expected (size and intensity of the fetch helped the angular spreading) and the numbers at the buoys are still nice. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. Here's a flawless shoulder high one at 6.30am.


North shore
NW001
6.8ft @ 11s from 335° (NNW)

Pauwela

3.3ft @ 9s from 4° (N)
2.8ft @ 11s from 330° (NW)

First low pulse of NW energy is at Pauwela, while the second much larger one is on its hills (at NW001). Let's see how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetches:

The first pattern unfolded into 9/26 with the surface winds leaning
below near gales and the head of the fetch further away. This lower
pulse is due on Tuesday with a trend up in the PM from 325-350
degrees. There could be the start of some longer period energy of
14-16 seconds toward sundown.

The second pattern has nosed near gales to near 35N to the N of
Hawaii Monday morning 9/28. The low center is beginning to occlude
and should gain severe gale status overnight. The track away from
Hawaii limits the surf potential for the longer-period portion.

The nearby gales alone should bring surf above the September average
by Wednesday morning with an upward trend from 325-350 degrees. The
longer-wave period portion should peak on Thursday morning from
345-010 degrees at levels above the Sept-May average.

Below is the collage of the maps of Sept 26 through 29 that will help follow.


Below are the NW001 and Pauwela graphs, together with the Surfline forecast. The second pulse seems to have start hitting the NW buoy around 5pm yesterday. 11s means 21h of travel, so I drew a red dotted line on Pauwela's graph to indicate a local rise in the afternoon. Earlier than the Surfline forecast that calls it during the night. Surfline forecsts have been late, so that might be the case also this time. Keep an eye on the Pauwela buoy, if you plan to surf in the afternoon. Meanwhile, almost 3ft 11s should make for at least head high waves at Hookipa to start the day with (beach report later this morning). 
 No to light wind in the early morning should make for very good conditions.

PS. I just saw a few well overhead sets at Sunset Beach in Oahu, so here in Maui there might be an even earlier rise around 11am/noon.




Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):




South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


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