4am significant buoy readings
North shore
NW101
1.8ft @ 15s from 298° (WNW)
Hanalei
0.3ft @ 18s from 325° (NW)
Pauwela
3.8ft @ 8s from 77° (ENE)
3.7ft @ 9s from 86° (E)
1.7ft @ 4s from 82° (E)
1ft @ 12s from 355° (N)
NW buoy just started registering some energy from the WNW and that means that Maui won't see anything change until very late in the day. My guess is that we won't get anything until dark, actually. So today we're still dealing with windswell only, with that 1f 12s from the N on top if it (not really sure where it comes from). Hookipa should be at minimal levels (close to flat) while the Waiehu coast might see some waist to chest high waves. But it sure is coming, let's see how Pat Caldwell describes the evolution of the fetch of this first swell, relatively small compared to what's behind.
The first fetch of gales over the 305-315 degree band followed an east- moving front that started east of the Kuril Islands 11/20, crossed the Date Line late 11/21, and weakened as it nosed to near 1000 nm away from Hawaii 11/22.
Below are the maps of Nov 20, 21 and 22. You can see how west the fetch was at the beginning and that's also why I don't think we'll see anything until tomorrow.
On this page, the WSL announced a yellow alert for the Peahi contest for Monday/Tuesday. It makes logistic sense, but it's a shame that the competitors will have to deal with the trades... like if the monster waves weren't enough of a challenge! There will be better cleaner swells later in the winter, but as I said, they got plenty production crews already here for the Honolua contest and the Triple Crown in Oahu, so they'll probably run it and it's going to be a great show.
South shore.
Yesterday there were knee high waves on the lahaina side. Should be similar today.
Wind map at noon.
North Pacific's fetch has increased its intensity. It's between 300 and 320, not ideal for Honolua (but so strong the it will get in there nonetheless), but perfect for big barrels on the right at Jaws.
A fetch like that deserves an old school weather map. Notice the four lows that are forming this massive gyre that Pat Caldwell describes like this:
The NW to central N Pacific entered an active cyclonic mode this week with the formation of a wintry Aleutian low. Such features are broad and slow-moving with a family of offspring surface low pressures being absorbed into the parent low from the SW.
South Pacific has a small fetch offshore Sidney.
Morning sky.
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