Friday, November 11, 2016

11 11 16 morning call

Yesterday there were plenty waves on offer, but I managed to do everything wrong.

To start, the spot I thought was going to go off was half the size I remember it to be with the same size and direction. That's why it's a bit pointless to write down all those information.
I've witnessed many times same exact numbers at the buoy and different conditions in the water. The ocean is more complex than what a buoy measures. It's good to have an idea of what direction and size is best for every spot, but don't waste too many neurons on remembering the particular numbers of that epic swell, because if you happen to see those same numbers again at the buoys, it won't mean that it's going to be exactly like it was.

I didn't even managed to take a surfing photo, this is the only thing I was able to produce. A total disaster, really.

3am significant buoy readings
South shore
From this post on, I'm gonna stop talking about the south shore, until I see some southerly energy on the maps. You guys check the Lahaina webcam if you're interested in going that way.

North shore
13.1ft @ 15s from 335° (NNW)

14ft @ 16s from 328° (NW)
9.4ft @ 15s from 332° (NNW)
3.4ft @ 13s from 342° (NNW)

10ft @ 15s from 329° (NW)           
4.6ft @ 13s from 342° (NNW)

9ft @ 17s from 330° (NW)
3.3ft @ 9s from 346° (NNW)
The Surfline forecast at 2am this morning was calling for 14.5f 16s from 337, instead it's 9f 17s. Here's how Pat Caldwell explains the difference between forecast and reality:
"A severe gale tracked east along the Aleutians from the Kamchatka corner 11/6, reaching the dateline 11/8, and occluding in the gulf of Alaska late on 11/9. While west to near the dateline, the fetch was more east to west, not well aimed at Hawaii. Once east of the dateline, the broadening gyre added more direct fetch at Hawaii within the 325-350 degree band, nosing to near 1200 nm away Tuesday night. The highest seas were aimed NE of Hawaii, however, a jason satellite overpass at 12Z 2016-11-09 showed a batch of seas near 30 feet west of the primary maximum of seas. The jason corridor showed seas higher than predicted by Wave Watch III, ww3, with GFS wind input. Based on the location of those elevated seas, this suggests the peak of the event locally should occur after the ww3 estimate, and be a notch higher. "
As a matter of fact there seems to be a double hump on the NW buoy graph below (clockwise: NW, Hanalei, Pauwela, Waimea). The red arrow shows the peak of the first one, which should occur at dawn in Maui. After that first hump, the swell relaxed a bit and about 12 hours later (blue arrow) it started going up again. I drew a dotted black line to show how I think the Pauwela buoy will look like during the day. Unfortunately the second peak should occur only after sunset, but at least the swell shouldn't go down much during the day.

It would be interesting to compare those graphs to the ones from the day they ran the Peahi contest last year: February 6 2015. Unfortunately those historical information were hard to find on the internet until... now. Using the archive feature of this blog, you can in fact easily retrieve each single post I did in the last 10 years and so I did.
The Pauwela buoy was reading 12f 16s in the early morning, so double hump or not, the waves should be smaller this year. Still probably fun to watch, but not as dramatic. Also notice how much more isolated the big hump on the graphs was. One main swell in the water, while instead this year there's still a lot of leftover energy from the past days swells.

If they run the contest, you can watch it live on the WSL page. Don't waste your time trying to go there and watch it live, because I believe the area will be closed. Plus, it's SO much better to watch it online with replays, interviews and hopefully good commentary. One thing for sure, I'm gonna miss Dave Kalama's (currently in Fiji) commentary that last year was excellent.
Here's the heat draw, plenty Maui guys, good luck to all of them.

Current wind map shows yet another solid NW fetch for another big swell that Surfline calls at 12.8f 16s from 325 at 8am on Monday. November started with a bang. Many bangs, actually.

NAM3km map at noon shows some easterly trades into the Jaws area up to 16 knots. And that is not good news either for the contest. No sailing on the north shore.

PS. I have a lesson at 6am, don't think I'll have time to post a beach report.
PPS. here's another sweet video from my favorite human on Earth.

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