Wednesday, November 23, 2016

11 23 16 morning call

Just a morning surf at Hookipa for me yesterday. There were gusts up to 25 knots, but thanks to the easterly direction, amazingly some of the faces were still smooth.

This photo by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery illustrates the windsurfing conditions later on in the day.

4am significant buoy readings

South shore
0.8ft @ 16s from 246° (WSW)
This is the low, long period energy coming from that Tasman Sea fetch on Nov. 16. I've been waiting for it to schedule a surf lesson with a group of blog readers and there it is. You book a surf lesson with me, you know you're gonna get the right conditions. Check the Lahaina webcam for size, wind and consistency.

-- 8am update: the webcam shows too small waves. Lesson is cancelled. I teach only if I think the students can improve their skills.
The Honolua contest is on hold. The high tide is not helping the consistency, but I think later on it will be on. --

North Shore
5.7ft @ 12s from 339° (NNW)

7.6ft @ 9s from 63° (ENE)
3.9ft @ 15s from 336° (NNW) 
Today's new NNW swell is looking a bit less than the forecast. What really perplexes me is the rapid decay in the period at the NW buoy. Below are the graphs of the NW and Pauwela buoy and the red dotted line is how I think it will evolve today.
Today is day 1 of the ladies contest at Honolua Bay and I'll talk more in detail about that below.

Current wind map shows:
- a small and distant NW fetch kept at bay by the strong high pressure that is generating this long round of strong trades
- the windswell fetch
- a small, but nicely oriented fetch down under.

That high pressure is going to exercise a block for the storms usual track and as a consequence we're gonna have smaller than average swells. Here's a quick list of them out of the Surfline open ocean 14 days swell forecast:
1) one today supposingly peaking at 5.8f 15s from 340 at 8am
2) 5.6f 15s from 328 on Friday night
3) 5f 15s from 327 at 2pm Tuesday Nov 29
4) 6f 15s from 310 on Saturday Nov 3rd

So overall it looks pretty grim for the Honolua contest, unless something changes, of course. With the exception of today's one, all those swells come from a not ideal angle for the bay. N.2 and 3 would still be allright if they were bigger, but they're not.
Today's swell has a great direction, but the buoys are not confirming the WW3 size prediction and it won't be a powerful one. This is the wind map from Sunday Nov 20 and that's as close and strong as the fetch got. Perfect angle, but not enough wind intensity, fetch size and a bit too distant from us.
Nonetheless, considering the rest of the forecast, I think they're going to start today, at least to get rid of round 1.

 NAM3km map at noon shows strong easterly trades.

Lastly, my friend Patti Cadiz brought up an issue with a proposed plan for Kanaha. Here's what she wrote:
"Please see the petition regarding the Kanaha beach Restoration Plan.  Please notice that a major problem is that ALL of the parking west of the lifeguard tower is proposed to be ONLY AT THE STREET. A Theive's Dream. Not safe or convenient especially for kitesurfing or fishers or divers or SUP. Note that there is no longer any emergency vehicle access to the shoreline west of the lifeguard tower. Making kiting and fishing access less safe and convenient will create new pressures for kite access to move eastward into traditional windsurf areas, upsetting the fragile balance that exists between user groups now. Please sign the petition asap and share it widely, as the planners are saying this nearly a DONE DEAL."Here's the link to that petition.

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