Sunday, November 20, 2016

11 20 16 morning call

Just a morning surf session for me yesterday. This shot is from the contest at Pavils yesterday morning. By Jimmie Hepp from this gallery.

5am significant buoy readings
4.9ft @ 8s from 68° (ENE)           
4.6ft @ 10s from 28° (NNE)
3.8ft @ 12s from 21° (NNE)

6.3ft @ 11s from 357° (N)

9.9ft @ 8s from 74° (ENE)

The train of NW energy of the swell from Friday/Saturday is completely passed under the NW buoy and disappeared pretty much from all other buoys too. Only windswell at that buoy now. But we have 6f 11s from the N at the N buoy and that is in line with how the fetches looked in the wind maps in the last few days. If you don't remember them, just scroll down to the previous calls and look for what I call the "current wind map" for the different days.
Some of that northerly energy should hit the Pauwela buoy soon, and add to the mess created by the elevated windswell: 10f 8s. But the real culprit for these days' rough conditions is the strong active wind.
You give me 10f 8s of windswell with no wind on it, and I'll find you several spots that will offer very fun waves. But unfortunately the wind is on it, so Pavillions will be the best quality wave on the north shore today.
I usually don't like to indicate where to go surf in my calls (I'd rather have my readers learn how to figure that out by themselves), but I'll gladly make an exception for Pavils, since it's a wave that I have no interest in...

Current wind map shows:
- a NNW fetch that is looking allright
- the windswell fetch
- a fetch down south aiming at the Americas. Hopefully the cock roach antennae's will be wide enough and we will get some angular spreading out of that swell.

NAM3km map at noon shows a hell lot of wind.

This snip from the Windguru table illustrates two things:
1) one of the longest red strips I've ever seen on it. It is going to be horribly windy until next Sunday Nov 27
2) the light at the end of the tunnel! Check the prediction for Tuesday Nov 29: I almost feel like popping a bottle of champagne!

But let's not celebrate too early. First, it's a prediction that it's 10 days ahead and as such it can change. Second, here's the wind map predicted for that Tuesday Nov 29. If that will happen, yes the Hawaiian Islands will be sitting in a lovely little area of no wind. The stubborn high pressure H1 that will cause strong trades all next week will have finally moved east, but another high pressure H2 will move in right after it, bringing onshore winds most likely on Nov 30/Dec 1. But what I like the most about this map is the massive fetch associated with the low L2 that seems big enough to re-establish a wintery character to the pressure configuration of the North Pacific.

Allright, that was a bit of a waste of time, since it was dedicated to analyze a situation that is way far ahead, but I felt like giving the clean waves lovers a bit of hope...
For now we got to cope with the strong wind and high windswell, and I got a plan for the day!

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