Tuesday, November 22, 2016

11 22 16 morning call

Bad call yesterday morning for me, I left a good looking Hookipa because the last iWindsurf.com Kahului sensor check read 0 mph and I really wanted to surf a spot over on that side. Of course by the time I got there the wind was on it and I kept thinking about how good the Point was.
Fortunately I made amends by surfing it at sunset and I gave the conditions a solid 8 (unfortunately, I buckled my board, but my board repair guy was right there, so it's in his hands already).

I even passed on some epic windsurfing to do that: there were two guys out all afternoon, because of how light the wind was.
Well, if that is what the strong wind forecast is going to turn into, I don't mind it all! But Yesterday was a particular day because of how offshore the direction was... we'll see how it goes the next few days. Because of the clouds/rain that the strong wind brings, it never really is as strong as predicted.

I don't have a photo from yesterday, so I'm gonna use this one of Graham Ezzy at Jaws by Jimmie Hepp.
Here's the comment Graham posted:
"That was a crazy moment: I was way too deep on the wave, way too deep. That whole day, I'd been playing it safe, and I felt a bit cowardly. As the lip rose up, shaking and about to break, I had two options: jibe off the back or hit the lip. In my mind, I saw the iconic image of Teriitehau flying above Jaws after an insane backdoor hit on a huge wave--an image which has long been an inspiration to me. Only after hitting the lip and starting to climb into the sky did I realize that I could rotate into a backloop, using the updraft from the wave to help the rotation."

And since we're talking about crazy rotation, a few days ago Albee Layer completed the first recorded double spin. Here's the video of it.


4am significant buoy readings
6.5ft @ 8s from 84° (E)
3.7ft @ 12s from 19° (NNE)

6.1ft @ 8s from 94° (E)
6.1ft @ 11s from 27° (NNE)

6.3ft @ 9s from 72° (ENE)           
4.1ft @ 12s from 17° (NNE)
NNE swell still stubbornly hitting the buoys, we sure like that. It did clock a tiny little bit more east, but not much at all and it didn't go down in size. Evidently, we're still receiving the energy from the beautiful fetch that happened on Nov 17 (the first one that I reposted yesterday). The period is now down to 12s and today I'm expecting that source to start fading out like the map of Nov 18 suggested.
But hey, 6f 11s at the N buoy, this thing is hard to die!

So those are the waves we're gonna surf today, mixed with the windswell.
A reader recently told me:"your call is very interesting and I learned a lot of things, but I wish there was a section in which you would more clearly state what's on offer for the day".
Thanks for the feedback, that section is this one: the "significant buoy readings" section! I can possibly only comment on what the trend is going to be for the rest of the day, but the readings of the buoys are a as-clear-as-it-gets picture of what's in the water. You don't know what 4f 12s from 17 degree means at your local break? Keep reading the buoys and sooner or later you'll have figured it out and you won't have to rely anymore on specific spot forecasts that are often inaccurate.
Talking about this kind of stuff, yesterday I received an email from a friend who just got back from a surf trip and met two girls that are going to compete in the Honolua Bay contest that starts tomorrow. One of them is from Oahu and is not familiar with the spot, so my friend was asking if I could send her my outlook for the contest forecast customized for the spot.
Here's what my reply was. It's 24h old, but I double checked that the swells I mention are still in the forecast... the open ocean one, link 15 in the GP's meteo links list on the right!

As far as the open ocean swell forecast go, there's nothing better than the WW3 graphical representation on Surfline: http://www.surfline.com/surf-forecasts/maui/maui-hookipa_8900/
They need to click on the offshore tab and they'll know what swells are forecasted for those days. It requires a subscription to see more than the next three days, but I assume they have it.
I'm not familiar instead with the Honolua bay spot forecast:
http://www.surfline.com/surf-forecasts/spot/honolua-bay_10814/ , but I usually dislike those.
Open ocean swell and local knowledge is the key for me.
Let me try to share some, but I'm not a Bay expert either, considering I surfed it only like 30 times in 15 years...

Some info about the shadow lines are here:
If you don't wonna read the whole thing, just keep in mind that Molokai sits at 335 degrees from the Bay. Anything more north than that, gets there unblocked. Anything more west than that, needs to wrap around Molokai and of course, the bigger and the more long period, the better swells do that.
Let me add that the more west and long period the swells are, the more the Cave will be barrelling. The more north, the more the Point acts like a pure point break (the reef is still underneath though!). A good example of this last case, is in that shot from Dusty I posted in this morning's call:

Said this, the forecast calls for a PERFECT swell on Wednesday, the first day of competition: 5-6f 15s from 338 is a great direction and size. Some double overhead bombs hopefully.
Then there's a very similar sized one for Friday/Saturday, but this is from 326 so it will be less consistent because only the biggest/more northerly sets will make it to the Cave and be worth paddling for. They might easily finish the comp in those three days, but there's a nice backup option on Dec 1st with 5f 16s from 346.

(Well, this one is not in the forecast anymore, but there are some other options in the remaining of the waiting period.)
Trades are offshore, if the windswell gets huge (and it will!), it might introduce a wobble in the walls, but it should be pretty easterly, so hopefully not too bad. This last one is a tough call.

Current wind map shows:
- a NW fetch
- the windswell fetch
- a couple of fetches down south that are definitely not ideal for us

NAM3km map at noon shows another day of strong easterly wind. Let's hope it does what it did yesterday and in the end offer great surfing conditions. Stay tuned for the beach report coming up soon after the sunrise.

By the way, good thing I didn't pop that bottle of champagne a couple of days ago the windguru GFS table changed and now we're not gonna have that nice break in the wind anymore. After one of the longest strip of red days starting today, we're gonna have a couple of days of "normal" trades and then... more red days. Whatever, I was wasting my time commentating on something forecasted 10 days ahead and I'm wasting my time doing the same thing now. Message is: long term forecast change. A lot.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Looks great Albee. This is what you can spend your time doing if you don't have a mortgage, don't have kids & live with your mom into your late twenties.