Friday 10 11 19 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Geoff for his donation and for pointing out that link n.1 of GP's meteo links was not working anymore and for proposing a replacement, which I updated the link with.

Pretty much a waveless day yesterday, maybe that's what inspired Ian Walsh to post this photo of Jaws by Mike Neal on his page.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Barbers
1.6ft @ 14s from 221° (SW)                        

1.1ft @ 12s from 205° (SSW)

Lanai
1.5ft @ 13s from 196° (SSW)

1.2ft @ 15s from 210° (SSW)

 

Not only the numbers are small, but the wind is blowing from the south also today and it's all blown out in Lahaina. Not the place to go today, but check the webcam later in the day, things can always change.

North shore
NW001

2.3ft @ 13s from 253° (WSW)

 

Hanalei

1.6ft @ 14s from 319° (NW)

 

Waimea

0.9ft @ 15s from 302° (WNW)

 

Pauwela

7ft @ 8s from 93° (E)                        

1.2ft @ 15s from 327° (NW)

 

New small long period NW swell is at the buoys (direction at the NW one is questionable). Let's first read how Pat Caldwell describes the evolution of the fetch:
A compact severe gale in the Kamchatka corner 10/5 tracked N into the Bering Sea. Winds weakened 10/6 south of the western Aleutians. A minor event is expected locally with some long-period forerunners late Thursday. The surf from 315-325 degrees should peak on Friday then drop on Saturday. With the long travel distance and narrow fetch, sets should be inconsistent.
 

Below are the maps of Oct 5, 6 and 7. I put an arrow on the fetch that is responsible for this small episode. Notice how quickly it moved into the Bering sea and how far away it was, so we can't expect much from it. As a matter of fact, Hookipa looks pretty flat in the webcam, there might be some small sets here and there. Probably I'll post a beach report later. Overall, a good day to rest.

Wind map at noon. This model got it SO wrong yesterday, it might be wrong ALSO today. Two factors contributed to the bad prediction: the wind had a touch of south in it (maybe more than a touch, as it was wrapping around the other way and blowing Kona in Kahului) and the clouds didn't allow the usual thermal component to develop.


North Pacific has a small W fetch associated with Typhoon Hagibis (small west swell predicted for the 14-15) and a windswell fetch.


South Pacific has no fetches of relevance.


Morning sky.