This completely different scenario instead was sent me by blog reader James Dawson. There was some shore break at Makena yesterday, my guess is that it was from the westerly energy of the typhoon.
This is my pick out of Jimmie Hepp's daily album of the windsurfing action at Hookipa. The Aloha Classic is coming up at the end of the month and there's a lot of excellent sailors in town.
6am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Barbers
2ft @ 13s from 195° (SSW)
Lanai
1.3ft @ 12s from 181° (S)
1ft @ 16s from 196° (SSW)
Small numbers at the buoys, small waves on the cam. Check it out yourself before going.
North shore
NW001
4.1ft @ 13s from 339° (NNW)
W
1.6ft @ 15s from 283° (WNW)
SW
1.5ft @ 15s from 300° (WNW)
Waimea
3.4ft @ 8s from 348° (NNW)
2.9ft @ 7s from 10° (N)
1.7ft @ 11s from 331° (NNW)
1.5ft @ 15s from 340° (NNW)
Pauwela
3.4ft @ 6s from 65° (ENE)
2.6ft @ 9s from 350° (N)
2.2ft @ 7s from 62° (ENE)
1.8ft @ 15s from 1° (N)
Interpreting the buoy readings is often a chess game. Let's first read what Pat Caldwell wrote 2 days ago: The extratropical remnant of Hagibis raced from near Hokkaido, Japan late 10/12 to the western Bering Sea 10/14. The fast track limited surf potential. Low, long-period swell is predicted to fill in locally Thursday from 305-315 degrees. It should peak on Friday from 310-325 degrees at levels below the October average.
A second swell is due on Thursday locally. A low pressure intensified N of Hawaii 10/13-14 as it moved into the Gulf of Alaska 10/15. It had a short duration of direct aim at Hawaii, then a longer duration aimed more NE of Hawaii but close enough for angular spreading.
Surf should pick up on Thursday from 340-360 degrees then slowly fall Friday into Saturday from 355-020 degrees. It should be below average.
Below are the maps of Oct 12, 13, 14 and 15 where you can see both the typhoon moving NE and the low of the second swell developing N of us. So, the NNW/N readings at the buoys most likely come from this last one, but the WNW reading at the W and SW buoys could be from the typhoon fetch. IF the directions of these last two is correct, that means that the energy hitting the buoys comes from the stages of the typhoon just after it left Japan (which sits at about 300 degrees from us), which happened on the 12 and 13. That would be good news, as the best day for that fetch was the 14th and so we might receive something from a better direction (around 320) tomorrow. This is just speculations based on the direction reported by the buoys, which, as we know, are not reliable at all, as they're influenced by all the other swells in the water.
"Rigth GP, but after all that, how big are the waves going to be today?!?", I can hear someone screaming...
Well, if I look at the buoy's graphs (below is Waimea), the only component that came up significantly compared to yesterday is that 8/9s N energy. Really hard to call the size (Mama's cam also down), I'm gonna go for the usual head high at Hookipa. Stay tuned for a possible beach report later this morning.
Wind map at noon.
North Pacific has pretty much nothing to talk about.
Same in the South.
Morning sky.
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