Saturday 10 26 19 morning call

The waves came up a lot yesterday, this is my pick of Jimmie Hepp's daily album of the windsurfing action at Hookipa. That's a sail with a 100% visibility, never seen anything like that, must be a prototype.


A friend of mine went to Honolua. She said 30 minutes between sets like this.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Unfortunately this morning the Surfline buoy page where I grab the readings (link n.11) is not available (at least at the moment). Since there's now a webcam in Lahaina, just look at it and you'll know what's there. Shouldn't be much.

North shore
NW1010

6.8ft @ 11s from 6° (N)

5.4ft @ 10s from 11° (NNE)

There was actually this one reading at one point (now it disappeared too). Considering that yesterday the NW buoy was reading 10ft 12s, we can see that the current swell is going to be declining all day. It should still have a pretty good size in the morning, hopefully I'll be able to report from the beach.

I'd like to analyze where the yesterday's (and today's) swell came from, 'cause I confess I couldn't really remember the fetch of it. Let's first read Pat Caldwell's description of it:
A low pressure trough just north of Hawaii within 30-35N 10/23-24 had a long fetch of near gales with pockets to marginal gales aimed highest just west of Kauai. The system is weakening 10/25 as the aim became more westerly away a from Hawaii.
NW NOAA buoys 51001 and 51101 10/25 show much more size in deep water swell height relative to the PacIOOS/CDIP Waimea, Oahu buoy, reflecting the aim of the event just west of Hawaii.

Below is the map of Oct 24. I introduced a new color in the international system of fetch circling: white is for the fetch that I complete ignored... I didn't even circle it! My first partial excuse is that the great rays map on the right didn't have it highlighted, as it was aiming west of us. The second is that my fetches map are just one sample a day. This fetch probably moved in a better position (with a better aim) later that day.

But overall, a flagrant miss. The more I observe angular spreadings, the more I learn about them. The waves produced by a fetch start dispersing angularly pretty much right away.

With Surfline failing to provide the main page why I actually pay for my annual subscription (the buoys), I feel entitled to post more than the "free" two days of the long term forecast. They underpredicted yesterday's size, as they show today as the peak (which is not). The purple line is the next XL large swell.


With the imminent start of the waiting period of the Aloha Classic, here's a bit of bad news for the organizers. Wave-wise, there's no doubt that the first 5 days will see the biggest waves, so it would seem an easy choice. But, there two but's:
But n.1: it's possible that there will be a window in which the waves are going to be too big even for the best in the world. The good news from this point of view, is that at least the fetch is remote, so there should be lulls in the sets that will allow the sailors to make it out. Long heat durations are likely in those days.

But n.2: all of a sudden, the wind on Wednesday looks too light (and even worse for the rest of the table) and that would reduce the number of days to four. Let me remind you that this year they have only 5 consecutive days to run Pro men and women and youth.

It's also possible that Maui will do its usual magic and it will result in one of the most epic editions ever. It will be fun to find out.


Well, finally the buoy page is now available, I don't feel like changing all I wrote above, so here comes the 4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.9ft @ 12s from 311° (NW)                        

1ft @ 14s from 223° (SW)

0.5ft @ 18s from 215° (SW)

Lanai
1.3ft @ 11s from 295° (WNW)

1.1ft @ 5s from 162° (SSE)

1.1ft @ 14s from 214° (SW)

Small energy of different periods, I wouldn't be too excited about the half foot 18s at Barbers. The webcam looks pretty small.

North shore
NW101
7.2ft @ 11s from 6° (N)

4.5ft @ 10s from 11° (NNE)

Waimea
5.8ft @ 12s from 345° (NNW)

Pauwela
6.5ft @ 12s from 333° (NNW)

3.9ft @ 9s from 16° (NNE)

Below are the graphs of Waimea and Pauwela that clearly show that the swell peaked yesterday and will be declining all day. 6.5ft 12s from 333 is a really fun size to start the day with. Hookipa will still be well overhead.

Wind map at noon.


North Pacific has the strong NW fetch and a much smaller/weaker NE one.


South Pacific has a fairly strong storm in the Tasman Sea, but the best fetch is blocked by New Zealand.


Morning sky.