Saturday 4 25 20 morning call

This epic shot by OneMoreFoto was taken on Thursday. I love it because it represents Maui, its variety of conditions and its incredible pool of talents. In this particular instance we have Jesse Richman flying with the kite, Matt Meola throwing an aerial and Kai Lenny filming the whole thing on his foil. I asked the photog "what's that line behind Jesse?". "Tow rope for Kai", he replied... kidding me?


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101

4.4ft @ 12s from 335° (NNW)

4.4ft @ 10s from 347° (NNW)

Hanalei
7ft @ 12s from 330° (NW)

Waimea

5.7ft @ 13s from 314° (NW)

3.7ft @ 9s from 331° (NNW)

Pauwela

4.4ft @ 13s from 329° (NW)

3.8ft @ 9s from 48° (NE)

3ft @ 10s from 345° (NNW)

Below is the graph of the NW buoy showing the slow but inexorable decline of the NW energy that has pleased us in the last few days. The 7ft 12s at Hanalei makes me think that there'll be waves also all day today, but starting tomorrow it looks pretty grim for a while.  Here's how Pat Caldwell described what happened.

The long-lived Aleutian low pattern NNW of Hawaii 4/18-22 gave the abundance of wintry surf locally this week. The pattern weakened 4/23 as the upper level cyclonic gyre faded and the associated trough moved east.
NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 noon Friday 4/24 show the dominant wave period has steadily shifted down to 10-14 seconds. The wave energy suggests continued above average conditions into Friday night.
By Saturday morning, surf is expected to fall to near April average heights. The dominant direction should hold centered near 330 degrees. The tail of the fetch of the aforementioned low had near to marginal gales about 1600 nm away late 4/22-23 and should keep small surf with a dropping trend 4/26-27.
Models show the north Pacific jet stream to shift north and become more zonal 4/25 into next week. Such patterns are associated with below average surf conditions locally. A compact marginal gale is modelled to intensify to the N of Hawaii as it tracks rapidly E near 40N 4/26-27 aiming highest seas NE of Hawaii. Angular spreading could make for small breakers Wednesday 4/29 from 340-360 degrees. It should be short-lived.

Hookipa will probably be head to possibly head and a half to start with (possible beach report later).


Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):


Morning sky.