Wednesday 4 15 20 morning call

Intense day of action for me yesterday. Filming the clips for a new Corona Virus vlog always motivates me to get in the water even more than I normally do. Hopefully I'll edit it today and post it tomorrow. This is a frame grab from the Hookipa morning session. It wasn't as good as it looks...


5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.2ft @ 12s from 192° (SSW)

1.2ft @ 15s from 228° (SW)

Lanai
1.4ft @ 12s from 183° (S)
Small reading at Lanai, while Barbers feels a bit of Tasman Sea energy. I don't think there's much the rest of this week, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
7.8ft @ 16s from 305° (WNW)

Hanalei
1.6ft @ 15s from 318° (NW)

1.4ft @ 20s from 306° (WNW)

Waimea
1.3ft @ 16s from 309° (WNW)

Pauwela

3.5ft @ 9s from 19° (NNE)

2.8ft @ 7s from 70° (ENE)

1.9ft @ 4s from 77° (ENE)

0.6ft @ 16s from 314° (NW)

 

New WNW swell on the rise all day. This is how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:

 

The north Pacific jet stream is transitioning into a more wintery pattern with the mean position further south and embedded troughs and cyclonic gyres forming on about a 3-4 days cycle with an eastward movement. This should make for an above April average spell mid week out about a week with peak days in winter mode.

The first in the wintry series formed east of Japan 4/11 with fetch set up over the 295-310 degree band. It gained storm force as it occluded near 45N, 170E 4/12 with fetch favoring 300-310 degrees. The center jogged to the SE to near the Date Line at 40N by Monday 4/13 as winds weakened to gales within the 300-320 degree swath. Models show the system continuing to weaken into early Tuesday with the head of the fetch of marginal gales about 1000 nm away over the 305-320 degree band.

JASON altimeter validated seas near 28 feet at the core of the swath aimed at Hawaii Monday morning at a distance about 1700 nm away from Hawaii. This data helps in estimating peak swell height locally.
Long-period forerunners should steadily build after dawn Wednesday from 295-310 degrees. Heights should climb above the April average Wednesday AM. The peak of the event is predicted for overnight Wednesday 4/15. The event should hold well above average Thursday from 300-315 degrees, then fall to near the April average Friday from 300-320 degrees.

Below is the collage of the fetches maps of April 11, 12, 13 and 14. The fetch is indicated by a red arrow.


Below are the graphs of the reported buoys together with the Surfline forecast, which seems to be, as usual, about 12 hours late (we'll more exactly tomorrow). The red dotted line on the Pauwela graph is my guess on how the swell will rise. Always difficult to guess the size of a WNW swell, I'm gonna say about 4-5ft 16s at sunset. Pretty much nothing noticeable from it all morning instead and not much at all around the Kahului area.
With 3.5ft 9s from 19 degrees leftover from the previous swell, Hookipa should still have waves up to head high in the early morning. Possible beach report later. Notice that the trades will make a come back today after many days of wonderful glassy conditions due to the two nearby lows we just had.


Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
WNW fetch n.2 (n.1 is gone) looks pretty solid. 8.5ft 15s from 309 predicted by Surfline on Sunday.


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
weak fetch SE of New Zealand.


Morning sky.