Tuesday 4 21 20 morning call

Didn't take any photos yesterday, most of you have probably seen already this incredible shot posted by Kai Lenny.  The distorsion introduced by the GoPro wide angle adds to the surreality of the image, but that sure was no small barrel.


5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
2.3ft @ 17s from 196° (SSW)

Lanai
1.9ft @ 16s from 196° (SSW)
Lovely long period readings at the buoys. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.


North shore
NW101
5.2ft @ 12s from 305° (WNW)

Hanalei
3.9ft @ 12s from 312° (NW)

Waimea
2.8ft @ 13s from 305° (WNW)

1.5ft @ 10s from 305° (WNW)

1.2ft @ 16s from 256° (WSW)

Pauwela
2.7ft @ 13s from 313° (NW)

1.9ft @ 8s from 90° (E)

0.5ft @ 16s from 314° (NW)

 

New moderate westerly pulse on the rise today, with a larger one tomorrow. Here's how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetches:

For April, a stronger than normal central Pacific Aleutian low pressure pattern set up this past weekend and is expected to hold into mid week. At the surface, a low pressure system became occluded near 40N 170W 4/18-19. A second low pressure is dropping in from the NW to reinforce that same low pressure area by late Monday and hold into Wednesday. This will make for overlapping, above average NNW events.

The first system set up a wide fetch of marginal gales with pockets to medium gales over the 315-330 degree band 4/17-20. The weaker winds nosed to near 1000 nm away early Sunday. This energy in the 12-14 second wave period band should pick up Tuesday morning bringing the surf back above average by late morning from 315-330 degrees.

The strongest winds associated with the first system were further away north of 40N. Models show the system weakening rapidly late 4/20. Moderate period swell of 12-16 seconds should fill in overnight Tuesday and peak Wednesday above average from 320-340 degrees.
The second system is modelled to be stronger with a longer fetch for the strongest winds. The head of the fetch is expected to reach about 1200 nm out early Tuesday. The system should hold as a gale through Tuesday 4/21, then weaken steadily to near gale on Wednesday as the low center lifts NNE. It should fade on 4/23.

Moderate- to long-period swell of 14-18 seconds are due to fill in Thursday morning from 315-330 degrees, keeping surf above average. The second source should peak Thursday night well above average from 320-340 degrees, remain elevated Friday, then slowly drop to near average by Saturday morning. Heights should fall below average Saturday night from 320-340 degrees.

Below is the collage of the maps of April 17 through 20 that will help you follow.


Below is the graph of the NW buoy. You can see that the moderate rise started around mid day yesterday, so expect something to be noticeable locally in the late morning/early afternoon (the 5am low 16s reading at Pauwela confirms that). But the first of the above maps shows how the NW buoys should receive more energy then the local ones, so don't expect anything particularly big yet. With 2.7ft 13s Hookipa should be up to head high and clean. Possible beach report around 8am, but no guarantee. Pretty flat down the coast.


Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).



North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):


Morning sky.