Saturday 7 25 20 morning call

Opening pictures all dedicated to Douglas. This is the satellite picture at 6.34am.


Here's the latest cone prediction.


This is the Euro model latest prediction of the position of the storm. I chose Sunday 2pm because that's when the winds should turn offshore on the north shore and possible epic surfing could be scored. Unfortunately, it's also when I start my working shift.


So, where will the epic surfing be? With hurricanes it's almost impossible to predict, as the local winds can change last minute depending on the trajectory of the storm. But here's a few pointers I can give.

Hana and the Kaupo side will see the biggest waves because the will receive the ESE longer period ones that have been generated in the past few days (Hilo starting to feel 15s energy, see below). None of that will reach the north shore (or anywhere else on Maui). For your convenience, below I reported the position of Koki (red dot) and Hamoa beach (yellow line shows 90 degrees). The waves will be big, extremely consistent and very dangerous, so I would just leave them to Ola, Hank and the Hana buoys. But if you really want to challenge yourself, you better get in your car now and be prepared to spend a long weekend there. I don't think it will be a good idea to drive on the Hana Highway until the rain is gone.


The north shore and the Waiehu coast will only see the short period waves generated when the storm passes north of us (if it does) which will last only a short period of time (possibly 24 hours). They will be extremely stormy and dangerous and most likely surfable only inside the Kahului harbor when the wind shifts from the south (Sunday afternoon).

What is going to make the whole thing more difficult is the decision of the Mayor to close all county parks. For that reason, Hi-Tech had to cancel today's keiki contest at Launiupoko, they're trying to reschedule for August 9th.
FYI, since so many people are willing to embrace the new wing craze, we just received a bunch of F-One, Ozone and WingRide M3 wings.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai

1.2ft @ 15s from 180° (S)   

1.1ft @ 11s from 179° (S)

Small 15s and 11s energy at Lanai, it should be a fairly small day (but not flat). Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.


North shore
Pauwela
5.2ft @ 8s from 55° (ENE)     

Hilo

6.1ft @ 8s from 76° (ENE)      

1.6ft @ 15s from 102° (ESE)

   
Up to head high waves at Hookipa, bigger on eastern exposures.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):


South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):


Morning sky.