No photos from yesterday, this is one from Ben Thouard.
South shore
Barbers
0.9ft @ 16s from 201° (SSW)
Lanai
1.2ft @ 12s from 175° (S)
0.8ft @ 16s from 199° (SSW)
Small southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam
if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.
North shore
NW101
5.5ft @ 12s from 339° (NNW)
Waimea
2ft @ 14s from 327° (NW)
Mokapu
4.5ft @ 8s from 63° (ENE)
New small NW pulse is at the NW and Waimea buoys and will be on the rise locally all day. Here's Pat Caldwell's description of the evolution of the fetch(es):
A zonal jet stream set up near the Aleutians 11/23 with a long-lived parent surface low-pressure area in the Bering Sea. A series of offspring low pressures and associated fronts near and just south of the Aleutians spaced 1-2 days apart have kept a mostly west to east surface winds flow of lower gales north of 40N aimed highest NE of Hawaii. All the back-to-back fetches progressed east with time. This should make for overlapping, below average events Saturday into Tuesday.
The head of the fetch of the first one passed 160W about 1500 nm NNW to N of Hawaii 11/24. NOAA NW Hawaii buoys mid Friday 11/27 show this event slower to arrive and weaker than expected. A JASON altimeter pass 2 AM HST 11/27 did show 8 feet combined seas and swell near 28N or about 450 nm away aimed at Hawaii. Along with the precursors in the 14-16 second band at buoy 51001, this suggests an increase Saturday. It should be filled in by the morning from 325-345 degrees then hold about the same with subtle ups and downs given the complex source into Monday.
The last low in the Bering Sea wave family is nearing the eastern Aleutians 11/27. There are some gales hugging the Aleutians and near gales to near 40N all aimed NE of Hawaii. It should move east of the Hawaii swell window 11/28. This source should fill in locally Monday PM from 325-350 degrees, peak Tuesday pre-dawn, then drop 12/1 PM as a winter-caliber event rises quickly.
Below is the collage of the maps of Nov 24 to 27 that will help follow the above description.
Below are the graphs of NW101 and Waimea together with the Surfline forecast calling for 5ft 12s on Sunday.
As usual, without the Pauwela buoy it's hard to guess the size of Hookipa, but, also considering that there's still 4.5ft 8s of ENE windswell (and that should increase from the NE tonight, due to the fetch you can see in today's map), my home call is for head high waves, increasing to overhead as the NW pulse fills in. Beach report coming up later.
Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).
Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):
South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):
Morning sky.
No comments:
Post a Comment