Couple of shots from yesterday's session.
Jackson's wrap.
4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. At least today there is something. I haven't seen a wave like this over there in a long time.
North shore
Waimea
3.1ft @ 13s from 323° (NW)
Mokapu
7.3ft @ 9s from 70° (ENE)
Small NW energy will be going up and down throughout this week, with an up trend towards Friday. More details on where those 3ft 13s come from can be found in Pat Caldwell's description of the evolution of the fetches below:
The source for the surf 11/22-23 was from a long, wide fetch of middle gales north of 40N aimed highest to the NE of Hawaii. The pattern progressed eastward behind a cold front starting from the Kuril Islands 11/18 to a position north of Hawaii about 1200 nm away 11/20 then east of the Hawaii swell window 11/21. The decay phase of this source should allow breakers to stick around for a few days since the tail of the fetch of marginal gales was still 2400 nm Friday morning. Heights should slowly trend down late Monday to quasi-moderate Tuesday on the sets then small on Wednesday from the same direction when a new below average event is due.
The already posted collage of maps of Nov16 to 20 might help follow (fetch n.2).
Since the easterly windswell energy is still at pretty elevated levels, I believe that is what we will see most in the water. Hookipa will be head to overhead high and blown out. Plenty messy waves on eastern exposures too.
Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).
Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):
South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):
Morning sky.
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