Monday, June 19, 2017

Monday 6 19 17 morning call

Another great day of surfing on the south shore, this whole week is going to be a good one. I don't have a shot of the day, but I have this one of maui ripper Will Hunt having some tube time down in Tahiti. Not sure what day that is, but that is a good sign of energy coming our way.

2-4am significant buoy readings
South shore

2.8ft @ 12s from 156° (SSE)                      
2.2ft @ 15s from 149° (SE)
2.9ft @ 12s from 160° (SSE)
4ft @ 12s from 164° (SSE)

Good numbers at the outer buoys, we should have plenty waves also today. The Lahaina webcam was pumping all day yesterday, check it out again to see how it looks like today. I should be able to post beach reports from there this morning.

In the meantime, let's have a look at the arrival time of the next bigger pulse, expected to hit tomorrow and Wednesday.  I updated the time table of the travelling times from the Samoa buoy on the often referenced post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines, easily accessible at any time through the labels section on the right column of this blog. Here it is for your convenience.

P               S                  T (days)             
11s  =  17.16  =   5.5  
12s  =  18.72  =   5  
13s  =  20.29  =   4.5 
14s  =  21.84  =   4.2 
15s  =  23.4   =   4  
16s  =  24.96  =   3.7  
17s  =  26.52  =   3.5  
18s  =  28.08  =   3.3  
19s  =  29.64  =   3.1  
20s  =  31.2   =   3d  
Now, this is going to get a bit confusing because this morning I must have caught the graph of that buoy just before it got shifted to the next day and the time reference on the X axis of the graph on the right is totally wrong. Fortunately, on Saturday I saved the same graph (on the left) and that gives us the confirmation that the rise happened during the day on Friday. Surfline, that's a sloppy job.

As you can see from the red arrows I put on the graph, it took only 15h for the swell to go from 2f 20s to 7f 15s. That time interval will be dilated by the time those waves arrive to Maui, because of the different speed at which different periods travel. 20s take 3 days, so that means ROUGHLY Tuesday morning.around 6am. 15s instead take 4 days and that of course means ROUGHLY Wednesday morning around 6am.

Unfortunately the peak of this pulse will happen during the night between those two days, but I really encourage everybody not to get too fixated on those numbers, as they are only an indication. Many different things can happen on the way and we'll have more info tomorrow morning.

The Surfline forecast is quite in line with my prediction (or vice versa) and is reported below. Please notice how this is the only way of graphically represent three (or more) different swells on the same forecast chart and that's why it's my favorite:
- the red line for today is the 12s energy of the very first pulse
- the blue line is the 15s energy of the second pulse
- the yellow line is the third and biggest pulse of tomorrow.
This graphical representation also matches exactly how those swells will look on the buoys graphs.

North shore
5.3ft @ 10s from 329° (NW)

3.1ft @ 13s from 315° (NW)

3.4ft @ 8s from 92° (E)                  
1.9ft @ 12s from 320° (NW)
Small NW swell on the way up today on the north shore. There will be waves at Hookipa and I hope that there will be occasional head high sets in the middle of the day when the trades are stronger and the windswell will add up to the NW lines. But honestly that's more of a good wish for the north shore sailors/kiters, since 2f 12s at 4am at Pauwela is not a reading to get particularly excited about.

2pm wind map 1

2pm wind map 2

North Pacific shows a tiny, strong and distant W fetch, a weak and close NW one and the remnant of the fetch that generated today's swell, now to the north of us. Nothing remarkable, but better than no fetches at all.

South Pacific shows many fetches too. The n.1 is the strongest with winds up to 55knots, but unfortunately tiny and very distant. The other three are closer and better oriented, but with much lighter winds. What I said above for the north applies here too: nothing remarkable, but better than no fetches at all.

We still got bands of north moving high clouds over us.

No comments: