Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Tuesday 6 20 17 morning call

The south shore keeps providing in this week of great surfing and Jason Hall is making the most of it.

Me too, but sometimes nature is just unpredictable. This is how pristine this spot looked throughout the duration of my lunch. It went onshore as soon as I paddled out and turned into junk in 2 minutes. Classic.

Levi Siver on the "occasional head high set" at Hookipa in the afternoon.

The stylish exit of the day award goes to Cookie.

2-3am significant buoy readings
South shore
2.6ft @ 17s from 161° (SSE)
2.1ft @ 12s from 141° (SE)

3ft @ 17s from 192° (SSW)

3.3ft @ 17s from 161° (SSE)

Solid numbers at the outer buoys, today it's gonna be at least head high everywhere and on the slow rise all day. Could be up to double overhead at the standout spots. I'm gonna use Pat Caldwell's words again to describe the fetches in the collage below (June 14,15,6 and 17).

The SW and SE Pacific mid latitudes have had active extra-tropical cyclones for allowing above average surf this week. It should make for overlapping swell energy from within 140-200 degrees.
A captured fetch of severe gale to storm-force winds moved NNE over the 190-200 degree band hugging the east side of New Zealand 6/13-14. The fetch was relatively narrow due to the proximity of the land mass. Seas grew within 30-40 feet. Gales pushed into the subtropics 6/15.

The pacioos american samoa buoy showed a sharp rise in the 18-22 second band 6/16. This extra-long wave period energy has risen at the NOAA southern Hawaii buoys 6/19 near day break. With a narrow focus in the wave spectrum, sets locally should be inconsistent, though at times making above average breakers Monday afternoon for zones of high refraction.

The american samoa buoy had a maximum in the 14-18 second energy late Friday through Saturday. The long-period swell should be filled in locally above average by Tuesday, with a slow increase to a maximum Tuesday night well above average from 190-200 degrees. Swell energy from 190-200 degrees should slowly trend down, reaching average levels by Thursday and lingering into Friday.

A low pressure deepened near 50s, 160°W 6/15-16 reaching severe gale status. The magnitude of winds and seas was lower than the former, though it had a wider fetch. Seas grew to around 25 feet with a direct aim at Hawaii over the 175-190 degree band.

Long-period forerunners are due Wednesday night, with the event climbing above average Thursday, .peaking Thursday night, and holding above average on Friday. Heights should fall to near to a notch above the summer average on Saturday from near due south.

Wave energy in Hawaii this week is also expected from 140-160 degrees. A sequence of low pressure systems SW to S of Easter Island within 6/12-18 should make for a long-lived spell of SE swell. The first event should have long-period forerunners late Tuesday with the event peaking late Wednesday above average. The second event is on its heels, building Thursday and peaking Friday. It should linger near or a notch below average through the weekend.

North shore
4.4ft @ 10s from 309° (WNW)

3.5ft @ 11s from 317° (NW)

4.6ft @ 8s from 88° (E)                      
2.5ft @ 11s from 335° (NNW)
Still waves at Hookipa up to the occasional head high set is my call again.

Wind map at 2pm.

Wind map at 2pm in this other model. Significant difference in the predicted wind strength. Could be the last time I post it if it ends up blowing strong instead.

North Pacific shows a small WNW fetch and the windswell one.

South Pacific has two small and weak closer fetches and one small but stronger more distant one.

Morning sky.

1 comment:

(Ben) Jamin Jones said...

BTW the WRF model
seemed to nail the wind at peaks perfectly this morning 8-11 when we were out. That's going to be the only one I look at, unless something changes.