Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Wednesday 6 14 17 morning call

Ridiculously fun Lahaina side longboard session for me yesterday, before I headed over to the north shore to teach a rare windsurf lesson. It was a bit wild out there, but definitely fun. Jimmie Hepp went to shoot Hookipa and that's how the waves looked like. Photo from this gallery.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

1.7ft @ 13s from 158° (SSE)

1.7ft @ 12s from 150° (SE)

2.9ft @ 12s from 164° (SSE)

I'm loving the 12-13s period on the south shore, another trip to that side is my plan also today. Check the webcams, but, once again, it won't be flat.

North shore
4.7ft @ 8s from 64° (ENE)

Pretty solid windswell at the Pauwela buoy, with the direction slowly veering towards east. Hookipa should still have waves with a wind reading at 5.15am of 10(6-13)mph from 84.
8am wind map

2pm wind map

North Pacific map shows a decent (for the season) NW and the windswell fetches. The first will generate a swell that Surfline predicts to peak on Monday at 3.5f 11s. I don't like that new graphic look at all... you can't even see where the islands are.

What I like instead is the strong fetch east of New Zealand capturing our attention in the South Pacific map. That's the strongest we've seen in the past few days and that is very good news for next week's action on the south shore. Surfline sees the first significant swell on Saturday at 2f 15s, but the pulse generated by today's fetch should be bigger with 3.5f 14s on Wednesday.

Below is the graph of the Samoa buoy that shows a first pulse of southerly energy peaking at 7f 15s Monday at midnight. Below is also the travel time table from that buoy to us (from the post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines), from which we can interpolate a travel time of roughly 4 days, so that energy should be in Maui around Friday at midnight. That makes me conclude that the Surfline forecast (based on the ww3 output) might be on the conservative side and a bit late. As you can see the blue line picked all day before that peak and that should imply that locally the swell should pick up all day Friday. We'll see.

20sec--30kts-- 74hrs (3days)

17sec--26kts-- 85hrs (3.5 days)

14sec--21kts--106 hrs (4.5 days)

11sec--17kts--130 hrs (5.5 days)

Pretty intense disturbance south of Kauai. At the moment, we're good, but if you want to keep an eye on it, the link is n.6.

The rain radar link is n.8 instead.

Sorry for going completely off the track here, bit after I finished this post I watched this little video about how we influence and determine the population of our ever so important gut bacteria. The video is from my favorite human on the planet Dr Greger, and it's brilliantly entitled "We are what they eat". Dr Greger's website is entirely based on the analysis of the thousands of scientifical studies that are publicly published and, as a subscriber, I receive a daily email with the link to the article/video of the day. Strongly recommended.

No comments: