I was so tired yesterday (the day of the flush is not exactly a fun one) that I was probably already asleep when Jimmie Hepp took this photo of the sunset.
3am significant buoy readings
2.3ft @ 15s from 168° (SSE)
2.1ft @ 11s from 137° (SE)
2.7ft @ 14s from 171° (S)
2.4ft @ 15s from 181° (S)
I was right about those long period NE readings yesterday: they were the forerunners of the new south swell instead. That confirms the fact that the direction recorded by the buoys has to always be seriously questioned, specially at the beginning of a swell and in presence of other swells in the water.
Now I'm going to do a (rare) act of humbleness and not even try to describe with my words where the southerly energy at buoys is coming from. The reason is that such thing is already available on the internet and can't be bettered. So I'm just gonna quote what I consider my master Pat Caldwell.
A regime change from dominant high pressure cells and weak low pressure cells to winter caliber low pressure cells took place in the mid latitudes from Tasmania to Easter Island 6/9-16. This should lead to an above average swell pattern locally from within 140-220 degrees for the upcoming period.
Since the choice of words can't be improved (I often compare his writing to poetry), the only way to make that more clear is to provide you guys with some graphical representation. Let's first start from this weekend.
For the weekend, two sources are expected to overlap. The dominant surf is expected from a compact low that tracked east from New Zealand near 35°S 6/9-12. It had a direct aim at Hawaii with strongest winds to upper-end gales 6/10-11. This energy peaked at the pacioos american samoa buoy on 6/13 in the 14-16 second wave period band.
The NOAA southern Hawaii buoy 51002 had a jump up in the 16-17 second band in the morning 6/16. The pacioos Pearl Harbor entrance buoys shows a slow rise in 14-18 second bands 6/16. Surf should climb to near summer average levels near sundown from 185-200 degrees. This event should peak late Saturday and slowly drop through Sunday as the dominant direction favors 180-190 degrees.
The second source for surf in Hawaii 6/17-19 was from a storm- force system that tracked rapidly east S to SE of New Zealand along 65°S 6/10-11. The highest seas aimed at the Americas. Angular spreading should bring long-period swell locally slowly filling in late Saturday, peaking late Sunday, and dropping Monday from 180-200 degrees.
Below is the collage of the fetch maps of June 10th up to 13th. I chose clockwise, starting from the top left and I'm going to try to stick to that standard for the future 4 pics collages, so I don't have to write down the dates anymore (which slows me down). The date is also available in the file names (circled in red). I know it's hard to read, but you can click on the picture to see it bigger. The two fetches uncle Pat is talking about are clearly visible in the the 11 and 12 maps. Things are looking pretty good for Tuesday as the Samoa buoy has just recored readings like 5f 18 and 6f 15s, but I'll talk about it more in the next few days.
And yes, there is a new buoy at the entrance of Pearl Harbor in Oahu and I just emailed Surfline and asked them to add it to their lovely buoys summary page (link n.11 of GP's meteo websites list on the right column of this blog). In the meantime, here's what the related NOAA page shows: 2f 15s from SSE.
4ft @ 8s from 90° (E)
Only easterly windswell on the north shore. Hookipa was totally flat at sunset and that's no surprise with a 90 degrees direction. Flat also today is my call.
The wind model I've been using/testing for the last month was off again yesterday, so I'm now back to testing this other one. Pretty useless for the south shore, at least it seems to predict the north shore better. This is the 2pm map.
Well, this one was kindly customized for me, so I won't ditch it just yet. I'll post both models 2pm maps for a while and compare them. They look pretty similar today, but this one somehow always under predicts the wind down the coast towards Kahului.
North Pacific shows one more day of small waves generation by the NW fetch that we observed in the last four days. There might be sets of the related swell at sunset tomorrow, but for Maui is more like a Monday affair. We'll know much more when we read the buoys tomorrow morning.
South shore finally giving up a bit on the wave generation after a whole week of serious storms.
Morning sky shows some cloud bands moving north.