Saturday, October 10, 2015

10 10 15 morning call

Pat Caldwell:"A series of winter-caliber low pressure systems have been closely packed in time and space for the longitudes from Tasmania to E of New Zealand 9/26 to the present. Models show continued abundant cyclonic activity in this region into the long range. It is making for a more active than normal southerly swell pattern in Hawaii for October. "

That's why I keep going south.

First wave of the session yesterday morning.

That's how it looked down the line when I kicked out.

3.5ft @ 11s from 25° (NNE)
3.3ft @ 8s from 21° (NNE)
2.8ft @ 14s from 142° (SE)
1.6ft @ 18s from 156° (SSE)

3.8ft @ 9s from 4° (N)
1ft @ 15s from 336° (NNW)
0.6ft @ 20s from 258° (WSW)

4.1ft @ 9s from 21° (NNE)
2.3ft @ 5s from 81° (E)
0.5ft @ 15s from 8° (N)
2.3ft @ 9s from 190° (S)
1.9ft @ 14s from 175° (S)
1.9ft @ 6s from 149° (SE)
1.7ft @ 20s from 192° (SSW)
I usually list only the buoy that have significance for the swells in the water. The significance of the NW buoy readings today is that there is no NNW readings yet. We're expecting a new NNW swell (I hope you guys remember the fetch in the past few days... if you don't, just scroll down to the previous posts), but with no readings at 4am yet you would think we won't get it until late.
At the same time, Waimea does have 1f 15s from NNW, so the swell is starting to pick up.
How does that happens, I'm not sure, but it's not the first time that I see a NW swell at Waimea before I see it at the NW buoy. I think the Waimea buoy is a better more sensitive buoy.
In this particular case, it's also possible that the NW buoy is sitting a bit towards the edge of the swell and won't get hit as much as the islands will.
So, bottom line, do expect the waves to pick up on the north shore in the afternoon.
Notice also the 20s west reading at Waimea. That is from that very distant typhoon. We shouldn't feel much of it in Maui, other than the odd set in Kihei.

1.9f 14s and 1.7f 20s are enough for me to drive south again. Expect a report from the road (hopefully it will upload, sometimes it doesn't if the connection is not strong).

Here's the graph of the Barbers buoy on which I underlined the >20s readings.
At the time I do this call, most times the MC2km maps are not updated. It's a bummer, because they are by far the best local wind prediction available. So, instead of posting the "old" maps, I'd rather post the newest prediction of the two models at the bottom of the windguru page. But if you guys read this later in the morning, do check if the MC2km maps have been updated (link n.17 on the right) if you want a better, more detailed wind forecast for the island.
Anyway, I heard Hookipa was sailable yesterday and with a wind forecast like this, it might as well be also today, it depends on the sun.

Nice and wide NNW fetch on the wind map again, the wind is not too strong though, so the period won't be particularly long. Notice also the favorable direction of the trades.

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