Saturday 8 22 20 morning call

This pretty sick shot was posted yesterday by Steve Tobis.


5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.7ft @ 13s from 191° (SSW)

Lanai

2ft @ 13s from 196° (SSW)

1.4ft @ 16s from 193° (SSW)

New long period SSW swell is at the Lanai buoy, here's how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetches.
A new gale fetch set up SE of New Zealand 8/13-14 with seas growing above 20 feet. It weakened 8/15. PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy did register this low swell in the 14-18s band 8/17-19. WW3 shows the onset stage locally Friday PM. NOAA southern Hawaii buoys and the PacIOOS/CDIP south side, near shore Hawaii buoys midday 8/21 all show a slither of increase in the morning hours, in agreement with the WW3. The onset stage with a slow rise of inconsistent, long-period sets should take about a day, making Saturday dawn potentially still on the slow side for consistency. The event should be filled in from 185-200 degrees by Saturday PM. This event should peak overnight Saturday into Sunday near to above average as a new event overlaps.

A second gale formed 8/15-16 a bit further east of New Zealand. It had a NE track with highest seas aimed at the Americas. It also grew seas over 20 feet. PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy 8/20 measured some low swell though less than the signal that passed this buoy Tuesday 8/18. But this source was further east near the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window, sending the primary swath east of the American Samoa buoy.

This second event should have slow onset late Saturday 8/22 and be filled in late Sunday 8/23 from 175-190 degrees. It should peak Sunday night to early Monday near to above average. The event should drop below average Tuesday 8/25 and fade to background 8/26.

Below is the collage of the maps of August 13 thorough 17 which will help follow the above elaborate description. As I wrote yesterday, lots of angular spreading involved, which makes the prediction of the actual size (and consistency) of the waves even more challenging.


Fortunately, there's a webcam in Lahaina, so check it out if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. Looks pretty solid when the set comes.


North shore
Pauwela

3.2ft @ 7s from 79° (ENE)

0.4ft @ 18s from 49° (NE)

 Tiny waves at Hookipa, bigger on eastern exposures.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):


South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):


Morning sky.