Thursday 8 13 20 morning call

Another wing downinder for me yesterday. I wonder if they're so much fun because it's the first ones I'm doing, maybe they'll get less fun later? It's possible, but at the same time, they could also get even more fun when I learn to ride the bumps better. Whatever it'll be, they're ridiculously fun right now, so I'll keep enjoying them.

Earlier in the morning I did a quick harbor sesh and caught my boss Kim Ball's first winged flight.


This is an interesting video on the many wind forecast models available online. It's interesting to learn the differences, but for Hawaii, there's no doubt the best model is the one I use (link n.-2 of GP's meteo website list). First thing I check in the morning. I try to memorize all the maps hour by hour, but due to lack of available neurons, I do check them again later on my phone quite often. Absolutely key info to decide what to do next and where.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion. South shore
Barbers

1.1ft @ 11s from 178° (S)       

1.1ft @ 15s from 194° (SSW)

Lanai
1.3ft @ 15s from 192° (SSW)            

Once again, we have the case of the buoys picking up some long period energy, but that's mostly because there's nothing else in the water, so they are able to detect and report this feeble energy. Checking the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency, is even more important in these cases, as there really isn't much out there.


North shore
Pauwela

4.9ft @ 8s from 49° (NE)       

1ft @ 13s from 63° (ENE)

New relatively long period NE energy on the rise all day, here's how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:
Surface high pressure near 1030 mb has been anchored near 40N, 145-150W to the NE of Hawaii since 8/8. Enhanced winds on the SE side of the high set up a long fetch of strong trades over the 45-60 degree band starting 8/8 from over 1500 nm away. Near gales further away off central California aimed SE of Hawaii, though close enough to add some longer period wind swell to the mix. The main surf source for Hawaii was the broad fetch of strong breezes that shifted westward and has nosed to near 28N, 148W or about 700 nm away Tuesday night. Models show the enhanced fetch becoming narrower within 26-30N as it shifts westward 8/13 N to NNE of Hawaii then weakens to fresh speeds 8/14 once out of the Hawaii swell window.

The closer by fetch of fresh to strong trades 8/12 should trend up the 6-10 second surf on Thursday, with heights growing above average in the afternoon. The event should be filled in by early Friday with 8-12 second wave periods. It should peak mid Friday, and hold above average on Saturday. Heights should fall below average on Sunday then fade by Monday 8/17.

Below are the maps of August 9 through 12 that will help follow.


For the morning, I still call for small waves at Hookipa, bigger on eastern exposures, but they should get bigger in the afternoon. Tomorrow they might be up to 5ft 10s and with light wind in the morning Hookipa and the eastern exposures might end up being really fun. Actually, that's too easy of a call to use "might". They will be.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):


South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):


Morning sky.