Hookipa yesterday morning.
5am Surfline
significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
Lanai
Samoa
Nice mix of 13s and 16s energies at the buoys. I also reported the readings of Samoa, as they show nice 15s energy directed towards us plus a massive SSE windswell event (which will mostly miss us instead). Travel time from it to us (4 days at 15s) is in the Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines post.
Check the Lahaina
or Kihei
webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. That's a lovely head high set at the Breakwall.
North shore
NW001
5.9ft @ 13s from 313° (NW)
Hanalei
2.6ft @ 13s from 318° (NW)
Waimea
1.6ft @ 14s from 312° (NW)
Pauwela
New medium period and size NW swell on the rise all day. This is how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:
With the peak winds in the source only marginal gales over its long haul from the Kuril Islands to the central/eastern Aleutians 5/2-7, one has to look for the closest position to Hawaii to serve as the dominant indicator. That happened Thursday 5/6 in the early morning about 1200 nm out over the 320-340 degree band. This energy should rise above the May average in the late morning, peak Sunday night, then slowly drop into Tuesday from the same direction. There should be additional low energy spread within 305-350 degrees 5/9-11.
A weaker, more compact source has formed just west of the Date Line near 45N (1800 nm away) early Friday 5/7. It is modelled to place strong breezes with pockets to near gale about 1200 nm away from Hawaii mid to late Saturday. It is modelled to weaken sharply Saturday night. This weak source should reinforce the declining event Tuesday so surf stays about the same 5/11 from 320-340 degrees. It should drop to within tiny to small levels by Wednesday 5/12 from 320-350 degrees.
Below are the maps of May 4 through 8 that will help follow:
Below are the graphs of NW001 and Pauwela, together with the Surfline forecast that, for a change, doesn't seem to be late in this case. It might be a bit conservative though, I bet it will go up to 4-4.5ft 13s locally, but possibly during the night. Not much of it will be noticeable in the early morning though, so home guess for Hookipa is for a waist to chest high windswell peaks, with the NW sets getting progressively bigger as the day progresses. Should get overhead sometimes in the afternoon, for sure at sunset.
Oh, I finally changed the batteries of the wind meter on top of the house, so its indication on the right column is now current. As usual, disregard the peak speed and focus on the average and gust speeds. Direction is indicated by the letters at the bottom. It's not particularly well framed, but that's the best it fits in there.
Outside Sunset Beach on Oahu is already occasionally overhead, and that's good sign.
Forecast and energy spectrum of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.
Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).
Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):
South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):
Morning sky.
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