Thursday 6 17 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday afternoon.

3am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers

1.7ft @ 12s from 186° (S)

1ft @ 20s from 183° (S)

Lanai

1.5ft @ 11s from 191° (SSW)

1ft @ 18s from 185° (S)

First one of two long period swells should be on the very slow rise all day today. Here's how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:

A favorable pattern began to unfold SE to E of New Zealand and south of French Polynesia 6/10.

The first surface low pressure intensified 6/9-10 to the SE of New Zealand. The strongest winds reached severe gales during the earlier stages while the fetch was aimed more at the Americas. By late 6/10-11 it gained better aim at Hawaii though winds had weakened to mid-gales. As usual, higher swath of swell for this source is expected to miss Hawaii slightly to the east.

This first source should have slow onset (inconsistent larger sets) locally Thursday 6/17 from 185-195 degrees. It should be filled in a notch above average on Friday then slowly drop through Saturday from 180-195 degrees.

Below are the maps of June 10 thorugh 14 that will help follow.

It should be a good run of at least 7 days of waves ('bout time, this summer has been under average, imo). Below is the forecast for the Lanai buoy from this PACIOOS page. Biggest day should be Sunday with 3.6ft 17s at the buoy. Notice the two different pulses with their declining periods (dotted green and purple graphs) .

Both buoys do show 1 ft in the 18-20s period range, but don't forget how slow the onset of a distantly generated south swell can be. In this case, there will be a lot of angular spreading involved and that induces even less consistency. Most of the energy is in fact headed towards Central America, I should remember to check the Puerto Escondido cams in the weekend. Check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
Pauwela
5ft @ 6s from 56° (ENE)

Back to windswell only. Home guess for Hookipa is waist high and very weak.

Forecast and energy spectrum of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.