A funding campaign for the memorial of the victim of the Honolua shark attack Rob Warren has been set on this page. I surfed with him countless times at a Lahaina break. He was a humble and gentle soul with a constant smirk on his face. Can't help thinking that if the contest wasn't there (and the main parking lot hence very crowded) he would have not paddled out from the river mouth and would still be with us. But that's the wrong approach though, he would be still alive also if he woke up with a cold that morning or if his truck didn't start... Can't blame anybody, the universe just decided that it was his time to go. Rest in peace brother.
4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.3ft @ 14s from 200° (SSW)
Lanai
1ft @ 15s from 198° (SSW)
Low long period SSW energy continues at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam
if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.
North shore
NW101
6.2ft @ 9s from 22° (NNE)
Waimea
0.7ft @ 14s from 328° (NW)
Mokapu
3.9ft @ 9s from 68° (ENE)
A couple of new NW events are about to happen, here's Pat Caldwell's description of the evolution of the fetches:
A nearby source should build breakers locally from 320-350 degrees
Saturday morning after dawn. The jet stream became zonal 12/10 and
steered a compact low rapidly east along 35N. The low is already east
of the Hawaii swell window mid Friday. ASCAT satellite readings
Thursday night showed a pocket of near gales with a direct aim at
Hawaii with the head of the fetch about 600 nm away and strong
breezes to about 400 nm away. Shorter-period energy of 8-12 seconds
is expected to steadily climb into the afternoon 12/12, peak
overnight, then drop on Sunday as a new event takes over.
An occluded low-pressure system near the western Aleutians 12/8-11
set up a large fetch over the 310-330 degree band aimed at Hawaii.
ASCAT satellite readings showed the width and reach of the severe
gales to be less than advertised by weather models midweek earlier
this week. In turn, Wave Watch III output 12/11 has moved the arrival
later with magnitude lower than output from 12/9. The event should
have forerunners building overnight Sunday with breakers rising above
the seasonal average Sunday morning from 310-330 degrees. It should
peak Sunday night then slowly drop Monday as a potential new event
arrives.
Below are the maps of Dec 8 through 11 that will help follow the above description.
The NE energy at the NW buoys is due to the local circulation (check today's fetch map) and will never get here. No signs of the predicted first shorter period NW energy yet, so for Maui it might be a late sunset time arrival, but it could also be an overnight one. Only the readings throughout the rest of the day will tell. As far as the morning goes, it should be one of the flattest days of December on record. Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).
Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):
South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):
Morning sky.
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