Thursday 12 17 20 morning call

My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of the afternoon action at Hookipa.

For a change I went winging, Jason Hall was taking photos. This is Alex Aguera.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
7.1ft @ 16s from 322° (NW)

NW001
7.9ft @ 16s from 309° (WNW)

Waimea
6.3ft @ 15s from 324° (NW)

Mokapu
3.4ft @ 9s from 60° (ENE)

New WNW swell on the rise all day, here's Pat Caldwell description of the evolution of the fetch:
A parent low pressure pattern set up near the northern Kuril Islands 12/12-16. The first 36 hours gave way to a wide, long fetch of severe gale to storm-force winds over the 305-320 degree band relative to Hawaii, nosing to near 2000 nm away early 12/13. Winds decreased to middle gales late on 12/13. The seas grew within 30-35 feet by early Sunday with a direct aim at Hawaii.

NOAA NW Hawaii buoy 51001 12/16 AM shows long-period energy of 16-21 seconds rising. This event should have a slow onset locally late 12/16 PM with heights above average by dawn 12/17. Surf should peak 12/17 PM from 305-320 degrees. An overlapping, short-lived event is also due Thursday morning from 320-345 degrees, though well less size than the dominant NW source. Declining breakers should hold above average Friday and fall below average by Saturday from 305-345 degrees.

Below are the maps of Dec13 through 16 that will help follow the above description.

Below are the graphs of NW101 and Waimea together with the Surfline forecast. The red dotted line would be how the swell would be in Maui IF there was no blockage from the upstread islands. Hard to predict the amount of that blockage when one NW buoy shows a direction of 322 and the other of 309. Judging from the fetch, I believe the latter more. The more west, the less and more inconsistent energy we'll get. Late Hookipa guess from home is head and a half or more but inconsistent. Possible beach report only later in the morning.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.