Saturday 12 19 20 morning call

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My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of yesterday's action at Hookipa.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

This should be a decent week for the south shore, as a couple of off season swells are on their way. First one will be smaller and could start showing already tonight, here's Pat Caldwell's description of the evolution of the fetch:

Middle gales in a captured fetch moving NE behind a front E of New Zealand 12/12-13 nosed to about 3500 nm away from Hawaii. Seas held mostly within 15-20 feet. Even though the spatial size of the source was larger than most sources, the magnitude was on the low-end. Thus, only moderate or less south swell surf is expected in Hawaii. The spatial size of the source should make for a long-lived event. The PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy12/16 had a sharp jump in wave energy, though tropical cyclone Zazu to the SSE is the dominant source for the 10-14 second energy. Zazu energy certainly helps the midlatitude event passing under, since both have swell aimed at Hawaii. But Zazu was tracking SSE, which is unfavorable for Hawaii surf potential. Thus, if Zazu was the only source, then no surf would be expected in Hawaii. Surf is expected to have onset locally mid Saturday 12/19 from 185-200 degrees. It should be filled in by Sunday 12/20 and hold about the same on Monday 12/21 a notch under the summer average. Tropical cyclone Yasa near Fiji 12/15-17 could also add some small energy from 200-220 degrees locally 12/20-22.


Below are the maps of Dec 12 through 14 that will help follow the above description.

North shore
NW101
4.8ft @ 13s from 328° (NW)

Mokapu
8.4ft @ 8s from 65° (ENE)

Waimea is offline (been a bad year for the buoys), there should still be around 4ft 13s of declining NW energy. Easterly windswell is pumping at Mokapu, between the two and the strong trades, Hookipa will be again overhead and rough.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.