Saturday 12 5 20 morning call

First an announcement. The reason why the NOAA is planning on discontinuing Pat Caldwell's page is because as of January 1st the most beloved wave forecaster of Hawaii is going to retire. His
"meteo poetry" is going to be greatly missed and I feel like thanking him hugely for all the things he taught us over the years. Thank you Pat, enjoy your retirement!

This is Hookipa yesterday morning. Don't know the new girl in town, but she sure charges.

Later in the afternoon the windsurfers took over, as usual on any windy day. My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of the day.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai
0.9ft @ 15s from 214° (SW)

Unidentified source for that suspicious reading at Lanai, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
8ft @ 12s from 331° (NNW)

Waimea
4.3ft @ 11s from 330° (NW)

Might as well utilize Pat Caldwell's descriptions as long as they're there. Remember that the timing is for Oahu. Maui will be 3-6 hours after that, depending on the period of the swell (4h for 16s).
A broad area of low pressure 12/1 set up a long, wide fetch of low-end gales from the Kuril Islands to east of the Date Line over the 300-340 degree band into 12/3, when the head of the fetch of near gales nosed to within 700 nm NNW of Hawaii. This portion of shorter-period swell of 8-12 seconds from the closest fetch should build late Friday from 315-345 degrees. 

Within the broad area of low pressure, a gale deepened late 12/2 and held near 45N, 170W into early 12/4. This made for some lower end gales within 1000 nm away Thursday PM. JASON showed seas of 15-20 feet in this region. This moderate period energy of 12-16 seconds from 315-335 degrees should build locally near average midmorning Saturday. It should peak above average 12/5 PM. It should slowly decline at levels near to above average Sunday PM, as an arrival of a new event with a sharp increase is expected.

Below is the collage of the maps of Dec 1 through 3 that will help follow the above description.

Below is the graph of NW101. I circled the new 12s pulse and drew a dotted line to show when I think it will happen locally (12s take 20h from there to here).

So that increase is only going to be felt in the afternoon. As far as the morning goes, Waimea still shows 4.3ft 11s, so there will definitely still be waves on the north shore. Hookipa probably head high plus with bigger sets up to head and a half.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.