My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of yesterday's windsurfing action at Hookipa.
5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.4ft @ 20s from 217° (SW)
When I first saw that reading at Barbers I thought it was a glitch. The possible out of season SW swell is only predicted for tomorrow and Lanai doesn't report it. But instead it's here. Extremely inconsistent, but it's here. Check out this wave I managed to catch on the webcam.
Here's Pat Caldwell description of the evolution of the fetch:
Potential for an out-of-season, long-period SW event is reasonable for this week. A storm-force low-pressure system tracked east from SW to S of New Zealand 12/1-2. Seas grew within 30-40 feet in the southern Tasman Sea. Onset locally is modelled for Tuesday 12/8 PM, though most likely low and inconsistent. Better odds for the event to be filled in Wednesday 12/9 to near the summer average from 208-220 degrees. The austral, midlatitude system weakened once SE of New Zealand 12/3-4, though still of enough magnitude to suggest continued above-December average surf near to below the summer average 12/11 and dropping off 12/12 from 185-220 degrees.
Below is the collage of the maps of Dec 1 through 4 that will help follow the above description.
North shore
NW101
10.3ft @ 14s from 346° (NNW)
Waimea
10.2ft @ 13s from 325° (NW)
Day two of a large NW swell looks pretty solid at the buoys. Let's see how Pat Caldwell explains that:
A fast-moving low pressure crossed the Date Line near 45N 12/4 and occluded near 45N, 165W 12/5. The central pressure dropped to 941 mb. Seas well above 40 feet aimed NE of Hawaii. A sharp swell size gradient southward from the maximum set up, making for a challenging local surf forecast. Wave model output was higher than measured by local buoys. More times than not, it is the opposite.
PacIOOS/CDIP Waimea, Oahu buoy showed a peak Sunday night 12/6-7. Only the clean-up sets Monday morning have reached extra-large, enough to trigger outer reefs, though ample large surf has been arriving for nearshore reefs. As the system occluded 12/5, the center of low pressure moved slowly NE. The fetch aimed at Hawaii 12/5-6 favored gales over the 320-340 degree band with a long fetch. ASCAT satellite reports showed a sharp drop off in wind speeds for this fetch Sunday night into Monday morning 12/6-7. JASON altimeter showed seas within 14-18 feet about 1000 nm out Sunday PM into early Monday.
This suggests surf should stay about the same the next 36 hours. The Wave Watch III model gives a slight drop off for Tuesday morning locally, but then a mild reinforcement Tuesday PM. In general, above average surf from 320-340 degrees should hold into mid Wednesday as heights steadily decline below average by late Wednesday. The tail of the fetch was about 1800 nm away Sunday night. This should give small to moderate breakers for Thursday and small ones for Friday from 320-340 degrees. Surf should be at a seasonal minimum Saturday morning with a new event due in the PM.
With those numbers at the buoy Hookipa will be off limits for most surfers again, so seek for more sheltered places. It should be another good day at Honolua for the ladies contest.
Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).
Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):
South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):
Morning sky.
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