Thanks to blog readers Michelle, Greg, Alex and Jaecey for the donations.
As usual, I use the last week of the year to ask for donations to show the appreciation for the 2020 season of the MSR blog.
This pretty radical shot was tagged to Talis-Rain Tonkin. Jumping off the water with a foil on such a big wave (likely in Mauritius) is a very risky move.
7am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.
North shore
NW001
9.7ft @ 16s from 322° (NW)
Waimea
5.8ft @ 18s from 322° (NW)
New very long period XL swell will be on the rise all day.Here's how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:
A low-pressure cell bombed, meaning rapid deepening of the central pressure, 12/25-26 in the NW Pacific to near 940 mb near 50N, 170E. This established a parent Aleutian low pressure pattern covering a massive area filling the breadth of the western to central north Pacific. Hurricane-force winds favored the area closest to the low center with a long fetch over the 310-325 degree band. Gales to severe gales defined another long, wide, coinciding fetch over the 295-310 degree band. The former fetch had higher seas to near 50 feet as validated by the JASON satellite early Sunday while the latter, more WNW, fetch grew seas within 25-35 feet. The center of the parent low shifted ENE late Saturday into Sunday as highest seas began aiming more NE of Hawaii.
The extreme burst from 12/26 to early 12/27 associated with the former fetch allowed wave periods to reach well above 20 seconds in an area about 1800 nm away late Saturday. The 25 second wave energy can travel 900 nm a day. That matches the NOAA NW Hawaii Monday morning 12/28 buoy readings showing tickles to 26 second and more solid energy rising within 20-25 seconds. These forerunners race well ahead of the main swath of high swell, and should equate to a gradual rise 12/28 PM on Oahu. The rise should continue into Tuesday as breakers reach extra-large heights, meaning high enough to trigger outer reefs. The longer-period swell from 310-325 should dominate the breakers, with the 295-310 energy piggy-backing on by the afternoon.
Below are the maps of Dec 26 through 28 which will help follow the above description.
Below are the graphs of NW001 and Waimea, together with the Surfline forecast. As you can see, the swell should be rising all day, with Hookipa at very manageable levels to start the day with, but most likely not surfable by most common mortals by sunset.
The wind is calm in the morning, but predicted to pick up strong from the E later in the day. The usual wind maps are not available and that, together with the missing great circle rays fetch maps, the lack of any working webcams on the north shore and the imminent farewell of Mr. Caldwell, makes my task much more difficult. Nonetheless I'm not planning on quitting too (even though I do think about it sometimes) thanks to the love and support that you guys consistently show for this blog.
Meanwhile, at 8.45am Pipeline is rapidly becoming too big. A couple of big sets like this caught everybody inside. That must be not particularly fun.
N/A
Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):
South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):
Morning sky.
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