Friday, February 12, 2021

Friday 2 12 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday. Photo by Jimmie Hepp from this album.

6am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore

0.6ft @ 18s from 194° (SSW)

Lanai keeps showing low long period SSW energy, but the Lahaina webcam shows flat with very occasional little waves like that. Check it if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore

3.6ft @ 10s from 304° (WNW)
3.5ft @ 15s from 307° (WNW)


3.6ft @ 7s from 75° (ENE)
3.1ft @ 8s from 55° (ENE)
1.5ft @ 11s from 342° (NNW)
0.6ft @ 20s from 351° (N)

New long period WNW swell started rising at the NW buoys, but it's still looking quite unimpressive. Here's Pat Caldwell's description of the evolution of the fetch:
Wednesday morning 18Z (8 AM HST) 2/10 synoptic weather chart shows a hurricane-force, 947 mb low pressure near 45N on the Date Line, or about 1800 nm away from Hawaii. This is your text book winter Aleutian low. The low deepened rapidly Tuesday 2/9 though the areal coverage of the strongest winds was still compact. By early Wednesday, the fetch of severe-gale to hurricane-force winds had expanded long and wide over the 305-325 degree band. The head of the fetch is expected to reach about 1200 nm away late Wednesday into Thursday. Highest seas are predicted to aim NE of Hawaii, though a hefty portion is aimed at the islands. With the SW-NE tight gradient of swell size near the islands, place bigger error bars than usual on the local surf estimate.

Below are the maps of Feb 9 through 11 that will help follow.

Below are the graphs of NW101 and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast. I believe there will be sets noticeable in the afternoon, while Surfline only calls for tomorrow.

Home guess for Hookipa this morning is close to flat with occasional sets up to head high.

Wind map at noon.
While waiting for the usual wind maps to come back online, these are two alternatives: PACIOOS page and Surfline. Another big difference between the two: the first one calls for wind in Kahului, the second shows too easterly of a direction to get down there. I'm still comparing the two.

Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

1 comment:

(Ben) Jamin Jones said...

Did you notice that the PACIOS model is updated 2:30 PM previous day. That might impact it's accuracy though today it seemed pretty good. The surfline model has no stated update time that I could see but hopefully it's early morning. Today not as accurate as the PACIOS model so who knows. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯