Wednesday, February 03, 2021

Wednesday 2 3 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday morning was gorgeous.


Matt Meola chose the same spot and discipline I did. Made me wonder if I inspired him... probably not.
6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.1ft @ 13s from 188° (S)

Lanai
0.8ft @ 13s from 200° (SSW)

Small southerly energy at the buoys, but the Kona is blowing pretty strong onshore on the south side. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.


North shore
NW101

7.8ft @ 7s from 293° (WNW)
3.3ft @ 15s from 283° (WNW)

Pauwela

4.4ft @ 7s from 85° (E)
2.7ft @ 11s from 25° (NNE)

New long period WNW swell started picking up during the night at the outer buoys and it's looking quite unimpressive. Here's an interesting paragraph from the NOAA page:
The offshore NOAA buoys 51001 and 51101 show the incoming west- northwest swell continue to build this morning, although some wind wave contamination is making it difficult to determine if it's running on time when compared to WW3 guidance. Given significant wave heights are running pretty much spot on at the moment, the swell is likely coming in on time as predicted. This swell will continue to build from northwest to southeast down the island chain today and tonight, peak on Thursday, then gradually lower Thursday night through the weekend.

Below are the graphs of NW101 and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast. The significant wave height is the black line and you can see how it jumped up yesterday evening. But it's mostly because of the 7.8ft @ 7s from 293° (WNW) of local windswell associated with the front. I drew a red dotted line to indicate the possibility of some sets at sunset for Maui. Surfline only has the big stuff (11ft 14s for tomorrow).


What front am I talking about?
A strong cold front will slide southeastward down the island chain today and tonight, shifting east of the Big Island by daybreak Thursday. Strong south-southwest winds are expected in advance of the front, with strong northwest winds filling in following the frontal passage. Winds will shift northerly Thursday through Friday night at moderate to gentle speeds. High pressure building north of the islands will then bring a return of moderate east-northeasterly trades over the weekend, strongest on Sunday
.
Get your umbrellas ready.

Oh yeah, home guess for Hookipa is for head high and clean, but it's a race against the strong Kona, which both Windguru models below call for around 9am.


Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


1 comment:

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