Wednesday 3 31 21 morning call

Went Makena side yesterday, here's a few shots I took before being massively skunked by a shift of the wind.

5am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
2.4ft @ 15s from 184° (S)

Lanai

3.1ft @ 15s from 190° (S)

South shore is pumping. Check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW001
5.4ft @ 15s from 286° (WNW)

Waimea
1.1ft @ 18s from 316° (NW)

Pauwela
4.4ft @ 8s from 80° (E)

 New WNW swell should be slowly rising all day. Let's first see how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:
The strongest low in about a month for the far NW Pacific unfolded last Friday 3/26 off Hokkaido, Japan. It tracked NE close and parallel to the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka into the Bering Sea by Saturday night. Central pressure dropped to 970 mb. Duration-limited fetches within 305-330 degrees set up since the track was perpendicular to the great circle rays to Hawaii. Seas did build about 25 feet. The long travel distance lowers local surf size potential.

Below are the maps of March 26 through 28 that show the fetch in the NW corner.

The first energy the upstream buoys are receiving is from the beginning stage of the fetch, which was more west than its further evolution. It's going to be a particularly slow start in Maui, as directions more west than 300 are partially blocked by the upstream islands. As the swell will move more north (following the movement of the fetch), it will get bigger (probably tomorrow). Below are the graphs of the reported buoys together with the surfline forecast. I circled in red the rise of swell at NW and Waimea and put red dots on Pauwela to show how I think the swell will rise locally (very little and very slowly). Surfline is even less optimistic and only has 3ft 14s and only tomorrow (but their forecast is usually late).

Home guess for Hookipa is tiny to start the day with and with inconsistent NW sets slowly building throughout the day.

Energy spectrum of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):


Morning sky.

Tuesday 3 30 21 morning call

Robby Naish posted this high jump on wingfoil gear.

6am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
2.4ft @ 17s from 180° (S)

Lanai

2.9ft @ 15s from 181° (S)

Both buoys confirm the presence of long period southerly energy in the water. There's head high sets in Lahaina, but, due to the long travel distance and the angular spreading (fetch was aimed mostly to the Americas, as we saw yesterday) the consistency is relatively low. Gorgeous conditions though.
Check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

 Energy spectrum of Lanai from this PACIOOS page.

North shore
Waimea
2.1ft @ 11s from 345° (NNW)

Pauwela

3.9ft @ 7s from 75° (ENE)

3.2ft @ 9s from 78° (ENE)

2.6ft @ 11s from 346° (NNW)

Still some leftover NNW energy at Waimea and Pauwela, but it's really trickling down to nothing. New WNW swell predicted for tomorrow. Home guess for Hookipa is waist to chest with flat spells. No to light wind in the morning.

Energy spectrum of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

Monday 3 29 21 morning call

No photos from yesterday. One more image from the mysto spot in that big north swell a couple of weeks ago. Matt Meola. Photo by OneMoreFoto.

6am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
2.5ft @ 14s from 195° (SSW)

Lanai

2.2ft @ 14s from 176° (S)

Both buoys showed some 18s energy earlier, so my guess is that a new swell is slowly starting to creep in. This wonderful head higher below might just confirm that, but do check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

Below are the fetch maps of March 20 through 24 that show the fetch that was pretty solid, even though aiming more at the Americas. Surfline calls for 2.8s 16s for tomorrow and 3ft 15s for Wednesday.

North shore
NW001
4.4ft @ 11s from 355° (N)

Waimea
2.7ft @ 13s from 328° (NW)

Pauwela

5ft @ 9s from 77° (ENE)

3.2ft @ 5s from 79° (ENE)

2.1ft @ 13s from 332° (NNW)

2.1ft @ 11s from 340° (NNW)

Nice summary from this NOAA page: A couple of very small surf days are in store for the northern and western coasts today through Tuesday. Pauwela still shows small NNW energy and the readings at the upstream buoys make me think that it should linger around through all day, although on a decline trend. Home guess for Hookipa is chest to shoulder higher and windy. Bigger on eastern exposures, thanks to those 5ft 9s from 77.

Graph and forecast of the significant wave height at Pauwela together with its energy spectrum from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

Sunday 3 28 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday. Photo by Jimmie Hepp from this album.

5am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.4ft @ 15s from 201° (SSW)

Lanai

2.4ft @ 14s from 178° (S)

Despite the promising readings, this swell seems on its way down on the webcam and also without the usual glassy early morning conditions. Check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW001
6.2ft @ 11s from 333° (NNW)

Waimea

2.1ft @ 9s from 344° (NNW)

1.8ft @ 13s from 328° (NW)

Pauwela

5.4ft @ 8s from 75° (ENE)

1.9ft @ 12s from 336° (NNW)

While the previous NNW swell disappeared at Pauwela (2ft 9s still at Waimea), a new small one is on its heels. The reading at NW001 is pretty solid, but I think it's going to be smaller by the time it gets here. Let's have a look at the fetch maps of Mar 24 through 26 below. First notice how there were no fetches at all on the 24th. Then that low NNW of us lifted and created a small fetch of winds oriented towards us, but mostly to our west.

Pat Caldwell noticed that too:
The low started to lift north 3/25 and regained marginal gale status into 3/26. The fetch is mostly N to S along 170W (1000 nm NW of Hawaii) aimed highest west of Hawaii. There is a short fetch of near gales aimed at Hawaii. The angular spreading from the former should be the dominant source for this event. The system is modelled to weaken rapidly 3/27. It should be short-lived event locally, picking up Sunday, peaking Sunday night and dropping Monday from 315-330 degrees.

Below are the graphs of NW001 and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast. The rise of the new swell should be gradual all day and possibly get up to about 3-4ft 12s at sunset. Start of the day should be very small. Home guess for Hookipa is chest to shoulder high and windy.

Graph and forecast of the significant wave height at Pauwela together with its energy spectrum from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

Saturday 3 27 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday. Photo by Jimmie Hepp from this album.

6am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.7ft @ 15s from 195° (SSW)

Lanai

2ft @ 15s from 186° (S)

Small long period energy continues at the buoys. Check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
Waimea
2.5ft @ 11s from 338° (NNW)

Pauwela

3.8ft @ 11s from 337° (NNW)

3.7ft @ 9s from 51° (ENE)

2.5ft @ 7s from 58° (ENE)

2.1ft @ 6s from 79° (ENE)

NNW energy came down quite a bit, so today the waves are going to be much smaller than they have been for the last few days. Home guess for Hookipa is around head high. Wind is not too strong at the moment, but it will gradually increase as the morning goes.

Graph and forecast of the significant wave height at Pauwela together with its energy spectrum from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

Friday 3 26 21 morning call

One picture from the Hookipa yesterday morning session, before we start the late morning Kai Lenny show.


Top 10 reasons why I like living in Maui: I can watch and shoot Kai. Seriously!

Kai is 28. I'm 100% sure that he hasn't peaked yet and that he won't for still quite a long time. How good is he gonna be in 5 years?

6am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.7ft @ 16s from 194° (SSW)

Lanai

1.7ft @ 16s from 185° (S)

Long period energy continues at the buoys. Check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. That's a head high one.

North shore
NW001
5.8ft @ 12s from 339° (NNW)

Waimea
6.6ft @ 14s from 340° (NNW)

Pauwela

7ft @ 13s from 337° (NNW)

4.3ft @ 9s from 48° (NE)

Second peak of this swell is happening right now. Home guess for Hookipa is head and two thirds to double and clean. Eastern exposures getting smaller. Trade winds slowly coming back, but only in the afternoon, back to cranking over the weekend .

Graph and forecast of the significant wave height at Pauwela together with its energy spectrum from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.