Sunday, March 28, 2021

Sunday 3 28 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday. Photo by Jimmie Hepp from this album.

5am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
1.4ft @ 15s from 201° (SSW)


2.4ft @ 14s from 178° (S)

Despite the promising readings, this swell seems on its way down on the webcam and also without the usual glassy early morning conditions. Check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
6.2ft @ 11s from 333° (NNW)


2.1ft @ 9s from 344° (NNW)
1.8ft @ 13s from 328° (NW)


5.4ft @ 8s from 75° (ENE)
1.9ft @ 12s from 336° (NNW)

While the previous NNW swell disappeared at Pauwela (2ft 9s still at Waimea), a new small one is on its heels. The reading at NW001 is pretty solid, but I think it's going to be smaller by the time it gets here. Let's have a look at the fetch maps of Mar 24 through 26 below. First notice how there were no fetches at all on the 24th. Then that low NNW of us lifted and created a small fetch of winds oriented towards us, but mostly to our west.

Pat Caldwell noticed that too:
The low started to lift north 3/25 and regained marginal gale status into 3/26. The fetch is mostly N to S along 170W (1000 nm NW of Hawaii) aimed highest west of Hawaii. There is a short fetch of near gales aimed at Hawaii. The angular spreading from the former should be the dominant source for this event. The system is modelled to weaken rapidly 3/27. It should be short-lived event locally, picking up Sunday, peaking Sunday night and dropping Monday from 315-330 degrees.

Below are the graphs of NW001 and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast. The rise of the new swell should be gradual all day and possibly get up to about 3-4ft 12s at sunset. Start of the day should be very small. Home guess for Hookipa is chest to shoulder high and windy.

Graph and forecast of the significant wave height at Pauwela together with its energy spectrum from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific
(about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific
(about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

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