Thursday, September 02, 2021

Thursday 9 2 21 morning call

No photos from yesterday, here's some more info about my mainland trip. 

23 years ago I drove through the Monument Valley and I remember it as one of the most beautiful things I've ever seen. So beautiful that I wanted to see it again. That's why the very first search (in early May) for a rental car for this trip was for Las Vegas. Evidently the universe really wanted me to go back there, as an incredibly cheap deal on a "commercial van" (two seats in the front and nothing in the back) came up requiring no credit card to book. Nothing even close to that came up in the following months and so I stuck to the plan. And yes, the Monument Valley was just as beautiful as I remembered it.






4am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.

South shore
Barbers

1.9ft @ 10s from 183° (S)
1.6ft @ 11s from 176° (S)
1.3ft @ 6s from 160° (SSE)
0.9ft @ 18s from 191° (SSW)

That almost 1ft 18s at Barbers looks promising. Let's see what Pat Caldwell had to say about it.

A storm-force system tracked east in the deep high latitudes south of Tasmania and the Tasman Sea a week ago Tuesday to Wednesday 8/24-25. A sprinkling of low, long-period swell from this source can be seen in the NOAA southern buoy 51002 9/1 into midday. 

Odds got much better for surf in Hawaii once that broad area of low pressure tracked S to SE of New Zealand 8/26-27. Seas grew near 30 feet though highest aim was at the Americas, which will make the local apparent swell direction more from 180-190 degrees even though the source sat at 190-200 degrees relative to Hawaii. Given the angular spreading aspect, error bars are larger for the local surf estimate.

Here (again) are the maps of August 25 and 26 that will help follow. Remember, red is direct aim, blue is possible angular spreading.


Keep in mind that long distance long period and angular spreading all contribute to low consistency. But what really counts are the local winds, which, unfortunately, this early morning are not as favorable as usual. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.



North shore
Pauwela

2.8ft @ 8s from 54° (ENE)
2.1ft @ 5s from 73° (ENE)
1.9ft @ 11s from 50° (NE)

2ft 11s from 50 are a bit of a surprise, we'll take them! Home guess for Hookipa is around belly high.

Forecast and energy spectrum of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.



Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).




Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: possibly over the ice sheet) from Windy.
North Pacific
(about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):




South Pacific
(about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):




Morning sky.



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