Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Tuesday 9 14 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday at sunset.

WSL finals are on, this is the youtube streaming link.

4am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.

South shore

2.1ft @ 14s from 183° (S)
1.4ft @ 18s from 209° (SSW)

Two swells in the water at Barbers, let's see how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch of the 18s SSW one:

There was a storm-force system tracking east in the southern Tasman Sea to the S to SE of Tasmania 9/6-7. Seas grew to 40 feet as validated by the JASON altimeter pass 12Z 9/7 (2 AM HST Tuesday 9/7) to the SW of New Zealand and filled the breadth of the basin. Since the fetch was wide, that gives better odds that some of that swell will needle through the dense archipelagos of the SW Pacific to the N to NW of NZ and reach Hawaii. Odds are always sketchy with Tasman sources due to the partial shadowing, but sometimes we get lucky!

NOAA southern buoys 51003 (SW of Kauai) and 51002 (S of Oahu) midday Monday 9/13 show long-period forerunners of 19-21 seconds. This is the onset stage for the Tasman event, which should be fully filled in by Tuesday PM. The event should peak Tuesday night into Wednesday, then slowly drop Thursday from 208-220 degrees.

Below are the maps of Sept 6 through 8 that will help follow.

Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore

3.9ft @ 7s from 27° (NNE)
2.4ft @ 11s from 2° (N)

Small northerly energy continues, home guess for Hookipa is waist to occasionally chest high.

Forecast and energy spectrum of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: possibly over the ice sheet) from Windy.
North Pacific
(about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific
(about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

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