I forgot to post the wind map in the call and now that I have it ready I think it deserves a whole post.
G: Gold coast
I circled all the fetches generating waves towards Hawaii. The one to the NW of us is a captured one (that's when the front generating the waves moves in the same direction of the waves it is generating and the wind keeps building the same travelling seas. Captured fetches are a key factor for the development of big seas)..
It is generating a NNW swell that Pat Caldwell forecasts at 11f 15s on Friday. But I wouldn't get too excited, since he also adds:"This combination of remote longer period swell with closer generated short period swell leads to a chaotic type breaker pattern".
The other fetch in the north Pacific off Japan is pretty marginal. Lighter winds, way longer distance and shooting a bit north of us.
Then there's cyclone Pam NW of Fiji that is modeled to move south towards the north island of New Zealand. The fetch of winds pointed our way is almost insignificant. It's very compact and the storm is moving away from us. That's the opposite of the captured fetch described above. Not enough time/space to develop seas our way.
But it should do something for the Gold Coast in Australia where they've been waiting for waves to complete the first WSL contest of the season. Maybe a bit too late?
Lastly, there's a fetch south of Tahiti. The winds are weak, the distance is remarkable, I predict almost negligible surf from that source for our south shores in a week. Better if you're in Tahiti.
One more quote from uncle Pat, who I've been reading for 14 years, since I moved to Maui.
"In the north Pacific, the jet stream pattern is regressing to a winter pattern as the mean flow shifts southward"
Thank you Pat, I love you.