Thursday, April 29, 2021

Thursday 4 29 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday morning had some particularly clean inconsistent westerly sets. There were no other swells in the water and the long flat spells made for extremely calm waters and when the set came it looked like the Lahaina side kind of cleanness.

Will Hunt is in Mexico instead and is practicing riding beach break big barrels.

3-4am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore

3.9ft @ 13s from 257° (WSW)
1.3ft @ 20s from 224° (SW)


2.6ft @ 13s from 258° (WSW)
1.5ft @ 16s from 200° (SSW)
1.2ft @ 20s from 218° (SW)

The 13s is still the westerly energy that will be felt more on the Kihei side. The 20s energy instead comes from the Tasman Sea. Below are the maps of April 22 through 27 that show the fetch. The sets arrivals will probably be inconsistent.

Check the Lahaina or Kihei webcams if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
5.5ft @ 11s from 340° (NNW)


4.2ft @ 11s from 328° (NW)
0.6ft @ 20s from 274° (W)


3.5ft @ 11s from 322° (NW)
2.3ft @ 7s from 334° (NNW)

Things are about to shake up quite a bit on the north shore that has been sleepy for quite a few days. Here's Pat Caldwell's description of what happened (timing is for Oahu):

A low-pressure system that tracked across the breadth of the N Pacific 4/22-27 is giving us the tale of two swell events.

The second part was generated once the low set up NNW to N of Hawaii 4/25-27. The low center slowed in track and set up a long-lived, long, wide fetch of strong to near gale winds stretching from the Aleutians to about 1200 nm out from Hawaii 4/26-27. The system is sharply weakening 4/28.

NOAA NW buoys show the 10-12 second energy from 335-355 degrees on the rise midday Wednesday 4/28. This event should pick up locally overnight and climb above the May average by dawn on Thursday. The event should hold about the same into Friday morning, then drop to small levels on Saturday from the same direction.

Below are the maps of April 25 though 28 that show the fetch that generated the short period NNW energy on the rise today (red arrow). The black arrow instead shows the completely different and more westerly fetch that generated the longer period swell that will arrive tomorrow.

Below are the graphs of Waimea and Pauwela, together with the Surfline forecast. North shore should hence have plenty waves today (home guess for Hookipa is head high plus and building), unfortunately with light NE wind that will bring plenty chop in the lineup.

Forecast and energy spectrum of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.

Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific
(about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific
(about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

No comments: