Friday, December 30, 2016

12 30 16 morning call

Only a (horrible) morning surf for me yesterday, but an extremely productive day otherwise. I plan chores, cleanings, laundries and stuff like that around the waves too. One of smallest days of winter and with side-on winds? No worries, I got plenty stuff to do.

"Everything revolves around surfing" was a sentence spoken by a friend of mine on the phone while we were making plans for the day. I wrote that on the wall of the studio I was living in at the time (grooviest place ever). Unfortunately the studio was destined to be torn down, but I cut that piece of the wall before leaving and still have it with me.

I don't have photos from yesterday, but I'm going to post this one by John Patao from Dec 17. It was a day with a big north swell (possibly my favorite of the year so far) and I think that that spot will be going off today too (and I hope that John will be shooting again!). Imai De Vault is the surfer.

5am Significant buoy readings
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, but it's likely that Lahaina might get a little wrap from the northerly swell, check the webcams for that.

North shore
12ft @ 10s from 44° (NE)

10.7ft @ 10s from 43° (NE)

11.2ft @ 11s from 8° (N)

10.8ft @ 10s from 2° (N)

8.6ft @ 11s
7.8ft @ 10s from 7° (N)

7.1ft @ 10s from 15° (NNE)
6.8ft @ 11s from 335° (NNW)
Well, I asked Surfline to add the other NW buoy to their list and they did just that. Now I have one more buoy to copy and paste... in Italian we say:"did you want the bicycle? Now you got it... and now you pedal!"
Anyway, the 101 is the one we've been watching for many months, so we'll stick to that. The swell is definitely hitting everywhere. Notice how much more east and bigger it is at the westernmost buoys. That is explained by the position of the fetch on yesterday's wind map. Much more energy will be missing us travelling to the west of the islands towards Marshalls and Fiji.

Waimea has an incomplete/unclear reading, but what we really care is the Pauwela readings.
To comment on which, I'm gonna report a message I sent to a water photographer friend of mine that was asking my opinion about Honolua Bay on Friday. This conversation happened on Tuesday and my comment was based on the Surfline's offshore swells forecast (link n.15).
Look, if it was just for the NNE swell, there might be better spots. But there's also a NNW swell (6f 10s from 355) that might make the Bay just a little better. Or not. In any case, it's not going to be classic Bay with big barrels like Christmas.
When I checked that forecast, I was wondering why they had those two different components and if it was really going to happen. This morning's Pauwela readings are pretty much what was forecasted on Tuesday. I'm really impressed about the accuracy of that forecast, and I keep recommending it strongly: first three days are free, while 14 days require a subscription. I pay for mine happily.
Said that, I feel like confirming my opinion about the Bay. For sure plenty waves, but not as clean as usual, also due to the wind direction. The wind will be a bit of a problem everywhere.
And every time I think I'm done with commentating the buoy readings (like right now), I ask myself:"will there be readers that still wonder what is going and what to do today on at this point?"
Probably yes, but honestly for me it's as clear as it gets! The Pauwela buoy indicates what's in the water, you just got to pick your spot based on your personal preferences/skills.

Current wind map shows:
1) another fetch blocked in the Kamchatka corner by the dominating high pressures. Those remote NW fetches will generate small swells that we should start seeing around Sunday to Wednesday.
2) a very close northerly fetch associated with a "surprise" small low that has developed overnight on the eastern ridge of the high pressure. Mid December we had a similar situation and I personally like those a lot.
3) a weak fetch down under

NAM3km map at noon shows no hope for sailing on the north shore. That is, of course, unless you have a 7+ square meters sail and a 130+ liters freeride board. When I say no sailing on the north shore, I mean no sailing with the usual trades that are parallel to the beach and gets amplified by the Haleakala. Yes, we are spoiled here. Might be sailable in Kihei, but this model doesn't agree. Check the webcams for that.

Since I'm a bit later than usual, here's also the MC2km map at noon that still shows an original offshore NE direction, but no wind in Kihei. I'm perplexed and I encourage you guys to check the webcams during the day to figure out what's going on with the wind today.

One thing I can add: the satellite picture at 6am shows plenty cloud cover and that, as we know, never helps the wind.

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